College Football Update
Run date 2026-09-02 · week 1 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Pt diff | Elo |
|---|
| 1 | Indiana | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1933 |
| 2 | Georgia | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1852 |
| 3 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1846 |
| 4 | Oregon | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1835 |
| 5 | Ole Miss | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1826 |
| 6 | Texas | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1805 |
| 7 | Miami | ACC | 0-0 | +0 | 1791 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 0-0 | +0 | 1786 |
| 9 | Alabama | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1761 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 0-0 | +0 | 1755 |
| 11 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1742 |
| 12 | Iowa | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1742 |
| 13 | Texas A&M | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1739 |
| 14 | Utah | Big 12 | 0-0 | +0 | 1736 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1720 |
| 16 | Penn State | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1717 |
| 17 | BYU | Big 12 | 0-0 | +0 | 1700 |
| 18 | USC | Big Ten | 1-0 | +16 | 1696 |
| 19 | Washington | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1688 |
| 20 | SMU | ACC | 0-0 | +0 | 1683 |
| 21 | Michigan | Big Ten | 0-0 | +0 | 1679 |
| 22 | Tennessee | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1656 |
| 23 | Missouri | SEC | 0-0 | +0 | 1647 |
| 24 | Virginia | ACC | 1-0 | +26 | 1644 |
| 25 | Arizona | Big 12 | 0-0 | +0 | 1642 |
Conferences by average Elo
| # | Conference | Teams | Avg | Top 4 | Median | Bottom 4 | In top 25 | Best team |
|---|
| 1 | SEC | 16 | 1660 | 1811 | 1651 | 1513 | 9 | Georgia (1852) |
| 2 | FBS Independents | 2 | 1637 | — | 1637 | — | 1 | Notre Dame (1786) |
| 3 | Big Ten | 18 | 1628 | 1839 | 1627 | 1438 | 8 | Indiana (1933) |
| 4 | Big 12 | 16 | 1556 | 1708 | 1580 | 1408 | 4 | Texas Tech (1755) |
| 5 | ACC | 17 | 1535 | 1687 | 1530 | 1399 | 3 | Miami (1791) |
| 6 | American Athletic | 14 | 1413 | 1549 | 1486 | 1249 | 0 | Navy (1576) |
| 7 | Pac-12 | 8 | 1402 | 1480 | 1457 | 1325 | 0 | Boise State (1502) |
| 8 | Sun Belt | 14 | 1381 | 1504 | 1387 | 1259 | 0 | James Madison (1624) |
| 9 | Mountain West | 10 | 1310 | 1407 | 1296 | 1218 | 0 | New Mexico (1462) |
| 10 | Mid-American | 13 | 1294 | 1447 | 1276 | 1167 | 0 | Ohio (1496) |
| 11 | Conference USA | 10 | 1271 | 1342 | 1290 | 1189 | 0 | Western Kentucky (1370) |
One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.
📅 Games this week
2026-09-03 · 11 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| UAlbany @ Buffalo (FCS) | Buffalo | 90% | 37.5–16.7 | 54.2 |
| Merrimack @ Delaware (FCS) | Delaware | 91% | 40.4–17.9 | 58.3 |
| Colorado @ Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | 74% | 32.9–22.7 | 55.6 |
| UAB @ Illinois | Illinois | 91% | 39.5–17.6 | 57.1 |
| West Georgia @ Kennesaw State (FCS) | Kennesaw State | 94% | 40.1–14.3 | 54.3 |
| Eastern Illinois @ Minnesota (FCS) | Minnesota | 98% | 45.3–5.7 | 51.0 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri (FCS) | Missouri | 99% | 47.8–6.6 | 54.4 |
| Massachusetts @ Rutgers | Rutgers | 96% | 42.8–12.3 | 55.1 |
| Bethune-Cookman @ UCF (FCS) | UCF | 96% | 42.6–12.2 | 54.8 |
| Idaho @ Utah (FCS) | Utah | 99% | 53.1–7.0 | 60.2 |
| Akron @ Wake Forest | Wake Forest | 87% | 35.3–17.0 | 52.2 |
2026-09-04 · 8 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| San José State @ Eastern Michigan | Eastern Michigan | 68% | 30.4–23.3 | 53.7 |
| North Carolina A&T @ Georgia State (FCS) | Georgia State | 85% | 35.9–19.3 | 55.2 |
| Long Island University @ Kansas (FCS) | Kansas | 97% | 44.9–12.5 | 57.4 |
| Toledo @ Michigan State | Michigan State | 58% | 26.0–22.8 | 48.8 |
| UTEP @ Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 97% | 42.4–8.4 | 50.8 |
| Indiana State @ Purdue (FCS) | Purdue | 94% | 39.3–12.1 | 51.4 |
| Miami @ Stanford | Miami | 83% | 34.0–18.8 | 52.8 |
| Fresno State @ USC | USC | 84% | 33.9–18.3 | 52.3 |
2026-09-05 · 68 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Duquesne @ Air Force (FCS) | Air Force | 92% | 39.3–15.3 | 54.6 |
| East Carolina @ Alabama | Alabama | 85% | 33.8–17.4 | 51.2 |
| Maine @ App State (FCS) | App State | 92% | 39.6–16.6 | 56.2 |
| Northern Arizona @ Arizona (FCS) | Arizona | 99% | 48.6–7.6 | 56.2 |
| Morgan State @ Arizona State (FCS) | Arizona State | 98% | 46.5–8.9 | 55.5 |
| North Alabama @ Arkansas (FCS) | Arkansas | 97% | 46.3–13.8 | 60.2 |
| Bryant @ Army (FCS) | Army | 97% | 42.7–9.3 | 52.0 |
| Baylor vs. Auburn (N) | Auburn | 59% | 29.4–26.1 | 55.5 |
| Utah Tech @ BYU (FCS) | BYU | 99% | 50.1–5.9 | 56.0 |
| Tarleton State @ Bowling Green (FCS) | Bowling Green | 87% | 34.9–16.9 | 51.8 |
| UCLA @ California | California | 53% | 26.3–25.1 | 51.3 |
| The Citadel @ Charlotte (FCS) | Charlotte | 83% | 33.5–18.0 | 51.4 |
| Boston College @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 69% | 31.0–23.4 | 54.4 |
| Wyoming @ Colorado State | Colorado State | 53% | 22.8–21.7 | 44.5 |
| Tulane @ Duke | Duke | 65% | 31.0–25.2 | 56.1 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida | Florida | 87% | 36.8–18.8 | 55.6 |
| Tennessee State @ Georgia (FCS) | Georgia | 100% | 54.8–2.3 | 57.1 |
| Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern (FCS) | Georgia Southern | 95% | 43.2–14.5 | 57.7 |
| UNLV @ Hawai'i | Hawai'i | 55% | 29.0–27.0 | 56.0 |
| Oregon State @ Houston | Houston | 91% | 35.9–14.2 | 50.1 |
| North Texas @ Indiana | Indiana | 93% | 43.1–18.5 | 61.6 |
| Northern Illinois @ Iowa | Iowa | 96% | 37.3–6.5 | 43.8 |
| Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State (FCS) | Iowa State | 98% | 46.8–8.2 | 55.0 |
| Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (FCS) | Jacksonville State | 92% | 39.6–16.6 | 56.2 |
| Liberty @ James Madison | James Madison | 91% | 39.3–16.6 | 55.9 |
| Nicholls @ Kansas State (FCS) | Kansas State | 98% | 48.5–9.8 | 58.3 |
| Youngstown State @ Kentucky (FCS) | Kentucky | 98% | 43.7–8.4 | 52.1 |
| Clemson @ LSU | LSU | 61% | 27.2–22.7 | 49.9 |
| Lamar @ Louisiana (FCS) | Louisiana | 94% | 41.6–15.1 | 56.7 |
| Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech (FCS) | Louisiana Tech | 95% | 40.7–13.1 | 53.7 |
| Hampton @ Maryland (FCS) | Maryland | 96% | 41.5–12.2 | 53.7 |
| Arkansas State @ Memphis | Memphis | 69% | 32.3–24.7 | 56.9 |
| Western Michigan @ Michigan | Michigan | 81% | 30.1–16.5 | 46.6 |
| Murray State @ Middle Tennessee (FCS) | Middle Tennessee | 83% | 34.5–19.6 | 54.2 |
| UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 86% | 35.8–18.8 | 54.6 |
| Towson @ Navy (FCS) | Navy | 98% | 46.5–9.3 | 55.8 |
| Ohio @ Nebraska | Nebraska | 64% | 26.8–21.3 | 48.1 |
| Western Kentucky @ Nevada | Western Kentucky | 57% | 26.5–23.6 | 50.1 |
| Central Michigan @ New Mexico | New Mexico | 76% | 30.7–19.8 | 50.5 |
| Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State (FCS) | New Mexico State | 82% | 34.2–19.4 | 53.5 |
| Fordham @ North Dakota State (FCS) | North Dakota State | 92% | 39.2–16.0 | 55.2 |
| South Dakota State @ Northwestern (FCS) | Northwestern | 98% | 43.1–7.1 | 50.2 |
| Ball State @ Ohio State | Ohio State | 98% | 43.6–5.0 | 48.6 |
| Norfolk State @ Old Dominion (FCS) | Old Dominion | 98% | 46.3–9.9 | 56.1 |
| Boise State @ Oregon | Oregon | 90% | 37.7–16.6 | 54.3 |
| Marshall @ Penn State | Penn State | 89% | 36.7–17.0 | 53.6 |
| Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 80% | 31.6–18.4 | 50.0 |
| Houston Christian @ Rice (FCS) | Rice | 90% | 37.0–15.7 | 52.7 |
| Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State (FCS) | Sacramento State | 86% | 35.9–18.5 | 54.5 |
| Portland State @ San Diego State (FCS) | San Diego State | 96% | 41.1–10.6 | 51.7 |
| SE Louisiana @ South Alabama (FCS) | South Alabama | 93% | 41.3–16.8 | 58.1 |
| Kent State @ South Carolina | South Carolina | 91% | 36.6–14.9 | 51.4 |
| Florida International @ South Florida | South Florida | 80% | 37.6–24.3 | 62.0 |
| Alcorn State @ Southern Miss (FCS) | Southern Miss | 91% | 38.7–16.4 | 55.0 |
| New Hampshire @ Syracuse (FCS) | Syracuse | 93% | 40.2–14.9 | 55.1 |
| Rhode Island @ Temple (FCS) | Temple | 92% | 39.4–16.2 | 55.6 |
| Furman @ Tennessee (FCS) | Tennessee | 99% | 52.1–10.5 | 62.6 |
| Texas State @ Texas | Texas | 90% | 39.4–18.8 | 58.3 |
| Missouri State @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M | 95% | 41.2–12.8 | 54.0 |
| Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech (FCS) | Texas Tech | 99% | 53.6–6.5 | 60.1 |
| Sam Houston @ Troy | Troy | 85% | 33.1–16.5 | 49.6 |
| Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | Oklahoma State | 52% | 27.8–26.9 | 54.8 |
| Lafayette @ UConn (FCS) | UConn | 97% | 46.0–13.6 | 59.5 |
| UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA (FCS) | UTSA | 97% | 47.9–15.4 | 63.3 |
| Idaho State @ Utah State (FCS) | Utah State | 94% | 43.3–17.2 | 60.5 |
| Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt (FCS) | Vanderbilt | 99% | 53.0–6.6 | 59.6 |
| VMI @ Virginia Tech (FCS) | Virginia Tech | 94% | 40.2–13.2 | 53.4 |
| Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | West Virginia | 71% | 32.8–24.2 | 56.9 |
2026-09-06 · 3 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (N) | Notre Dame | 82% | 30.9–16.5 | 47.4 |
| Louisville vs. Ole Miss (N) | Ole Miss | 76% | 32.6–21.7 | 54.3 |
| Washington State @ Washington | Washington | 82% | 32.8–18.1 | 50.9 |
2026-09-07 · 1 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| SMU @ Florida State | SMU | 73% | 31.2–21.4 | 52.6 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 0 | — | — | — |
| Last 30 days | 0 | — | — | — |
| Season to date | 0 | — | — | — |
| Season, FBS vs. FBS only | 0 | — | — | — |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.
No games graded in the past week.
🔮 Season forecasts
Projected wins — top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Proj W-L | Bowl | Undefeated | CCG | Conf title |
|---|
| 1 | Indiana | Big Ten | 0-0 | 10.5-1.5 | 100% | 22% | 62% | 42% |
| 2 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 0-0 | 10.1-1.9 | 100% | 16% | 58% | 34% |
| 3 | Miami | ACC | 0-0 | 9.9-2.1 | 100% | 11% | 61% | 41% |
| 4 | Oregon | Big Ten | 0-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 99% | 8% | 36% | 18% |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 0-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 99% | 9% | — | — |
| 6 | Georgia | SEC | 0-0 | 9.5-2.5 | 99% | 8% | 42% | 25% |
| 7 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 0-0 | 9.5-2.5 | 99% | 7% | 56% | 38% |
| 8 | Utah | Big 12 | 0-0 | 9.2-2.8 | 98% | 6% | 37% | 21% |
| 9 | Virginia | ACC | 1-0 | 9.1-2.9 | 98% | 4% | 30% | 13% |
| 10 | Ole Miss | SEC | 0-0 | 9.0-3.0 | 98% | 4% | 31% | 17% |
| 11 | SMU | ACC | 0-0 | 9.0-3.0 | 98% | 4% | 38% | 18% |
| 12 | Penn State | Big Ten | 0-0 | 8.9-3.1 | 97% | 4% | 22% | 7% |
| 13 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 0-0 | 8.8-3.2 | 97% | 3% | 27% | 15% |
| 14 | Ohio | MAC | 0-0 | 8.8-3.2 | 96% | 4% | 53% | 31% |
| 15 | Texas | SEC | 0-0 | 8.6-3.4 | 95% | 3% | 32% | 17% |
| 16 | Navy | American | 0-0 | 8.6-3.4 | 96% | 2% | 47% | 26% |
| 17 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | 0-0 | 8.6-3.4 | 95% | 4% | 42% | 24% |
| 18 | Alabama | SEC | 0-0 | 8.5-3.5 | 95% | 3% | 23% | 11% |
| 19 | Iowa | Big Ten | 0-0 | 8.5-3.5 | 96% | 3% | 17% | 7% |
| 20 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 0-0 | 8.4-3.6 | 95% | 2% | 20% | 9% |
| 21 | BYU | Big 12 | 0-0 | 8.4-3.6 | 94% | 2% | 27% | 14% |
| 22 | New Mexico | MWC | 0-0 | 8.3-3.7 | 94% | 1% | 51% | 31% |
| 23 | Toledo | MAC | 0-0 | 8.3-3.7 | 93% | 2% | 38% | 20% |
| 24 | Texas A&M | SEC | 0-0 | 8.2-3.8 | 94% | 2% | 17% | 8% |
| 25 | Western Michigan | MAC | 0-0 | 8.2-3.8 | 93% | 1% | 45% | 26% |
Conference title races
| Conference | Favorites |
|---|
| ACC | Miami 41%, SMU 18%, Virginia 13%, Louisville 10% |
| American Athletic | Navy 26%, Tulane 17%, East Carolina 13%, North Texas 13% |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech 34%, Utah 21%, BYU 14%, Arizona 6% |
| Big Ten | Indiana 42%, Oregon 18%, Ohio State 15%, Penn State 7% |
| Conference USA | Western Kentucky 24%, Kennesaw State 21%, Florida International 13%, Jacksonville State 13% |
| Mid-American | Ohio 31%, Western Michigan 26%, Toledo 20%, Miami (OH) 8% |
| Mountain West | New Mexico 31%, Hawai'i 20%, UNLV 20%, Air Force 9% |
| Pac-12 | Boise State 25%, Texas State 21%, Washington State 16%, Fresno State 16% |
| SEC | Georgia 25%, Ole Miss 17%, Texas 17%, Alabama 11% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison 38%, Old Dominion 24%, Arkansas State 6%, Louisiana 5% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 880 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.
Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb