College Football Update

Run date 2026-09-15 · week 3 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Indiana	Big Ten	2-0	+91	1941
2	Georgia	SEC	2-0	+110	1855
3	Ole Miss	SEC	2-0	+35	1838
4	Ohio State	Big Ten	1-1	+52	1837
5	Texas	SEC	2-0	+53	1829
6	Miami	ACC	2-0	+109	1811
7	Notre Dame	Ind.	2-0	+80	1809
8	Alabama	SEC	2-0	+66	1806
9	Texas A&M	SEC	2-0	+78	1769
10	Oregon	Big Ten	1-1	-1	1768
11	Texas Tech	Big 12	2-0	+34	1760
12	Iowa	Big Ten	2-0	+43	1757
13	Utah	Big 12	2-0	+85	1754
14	Vanderbilt	SEC	2-0	+28	1747
15	Penn State	Big Ten	2-0	+63	1741
16	BYU	Big 12	2-0	+67	1730
17	USC	Big Ten	3-0	+74	1724
18	Michigan	Big Ten	2-0	+8	1719
19	Washington	Big Ten	2-0	+16	1705
20	Tennessee	SEC	2-0	+68	1698
21	SMU	ACC	2-0	+49	1696
22	LSU	SEC	2-0	+72	1692
23	Duke	ACC	2-0	+18	1688
24	Oklahoma	SEC	1-1	+44	1688
25	Missouri	SEC	2-0	+57	1682

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1682	1832	1690	1536	10	Georgia (1855)
2	Big Ten	18	1631	1826	1602	1451	8	Indiana (1941)
3	FBS Independents	2	1614	—	1614	—	1	Notre Dame (1809)
4	Big 12	16	1561	1718	1574	1416	3	Texas Tech (1760)
5	ACC	17	1540	1710	1533	1403	3	Miami (1811)
6	American Athletic	14	1416	1550	1463	1263	0	North Texas (1573)
7	Pac-12	8	1389	1468	1427	1309	0	Boise State (1542)
8	Sun Belt	14	1378	1485	1374	1276	0	James Madison (1631)
9	Mountain West	10	1308	1417	1288	1209	0	New Mexico (1492)
10	Mid-American	13	1283	1428	1245	1182	0	Western Michigan (1481)
11	Conference USA	10	1258	1317	1287	1184	0	Florida International (1336)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-09-17 · 1 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	85%	36.4–19.8	56.2

2026-09-18 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Portland State @ Oregon (FCS)	Oregon	99%	54.1–5.8	59.8
Houston @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech	78%	32.9–20.5	53.4
Miami @ Wake Forest	Miami	77%	32.9–21.4	54.3

2026-09-19 · 71 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Florida State @ Alabama	Alabama	91%	36.6–13.6	50.3
Charlotte @ App State	App State	82%	35.1–20.2	55.4
Northern Illinois @ Arizona	Arizona	94%	37.5–10.4	47.9
Georgia @ Arkansas	Georgia	87%	38.1–19.8	57.9
Florida @ Auburn	Auburn	56%	26.0–23.8	49.8
Louisiana Tech @ Baylor	Baylor	69%	31.9–24.0	55.9
South Dakota @ Boise State (FCS)	Boise State	98%	46.5–10.7	57.2
Maine @ Boston College (FCS)	Boston College	95%	41.6–13.0	54.7
Wagner @ California (FCS)	California	95%	41.6–13.0	54.5
Wyoming @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan	66%	24.4–18.0	42.4
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati	Cincinnati	79%	31.6–18.5	50.1
North Carolina @ Clemson	Clemson	72%	29.2–19.8	48.9
BYU @ Colorado State	BYU	90%	36.7–15.7	52.4
Coastal Carolina @ Delaware	Delaware	52%	29.5–28.5	58.0
Stanford @ Duke	Duke	84%	35.9–19.6	55.5
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic	57%	31.5–28.5	60.0
Mercer @ Georgia Tech (FCS)	Georgia Tech	97%	44.7–11.8	56.4
Southern Illinois @ Illinois (FCS)	Illinois	98%	47.5–7.8	55.4
Western Kentucky @ Indiana	Indiana	98%	47.1–8.3	55.4
Northern Iowa @ Iowa (FCS)	Iowa	99%	49.4–1.7	51.0
Bowling Green @ Iowa State	Iowa State	94%	37.4–10.3	47.7
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State	Georgia Southern	55%	27.9–26.1	54.0
Arizona State vs. Kansas (N)	Arizona State	64%	30.9–25.3	56.3
Tulane @ Kansas State	Kansas State	68%	30.1–22.7	52.8
Ball State @ Liberty	Liberty	64%	29.0–23.4	52.4
UAB @ Louisiana	Louisiana	67%	33.4–26.3	59.7
SMU @ Louisville	SMU	54%	28.2–26.9	55.1
Virginia Tech @ Maryland	Maryland	63%	29.1–24.0	53.1
Stonehill @ Massachusetts (FCS)	Massachusetts	81%	33.1–19.1	52.2
UT Martin @ Memphis (FCS)	Memphis	96%	45.4–13.8	59.2
UTEP @ Michigan	Michigan	97%	41.2–8.0	49.3
Nevada @ Middle Tennessee	Nevada	53%	25.7–24.5	50.2
Akron @ Minnesota	Minnesota	88%	33.7–14.8	48.5
Troy @ Missouri	Missouri	86%	33.3–15.7	49.0
Marshall @ Missouri State	Marshall	61%	29.9–25.9	55.8
North Dakota @ Nebraska (FCS)	Nebraska	98%	46.7–8.1	54.8
Colorado @ Northwestern	Northwestern	72%	29.2–19.8	48.9
Michigan State @ Notre Dame	Notre Dame	88%	36.6–17.0	53.6
Kent State @ Ohio State	Ohio State	98%	44.4–7.5	51.9
New Mexico @ Oklahoma	Oklahoma	80%	31.7–17.9	49.6
Murray State @ Oklahoma State (FCS)	Oklahoma State	92%	38.2–14.3	52.4
East Carolina @ Old Dominion	Old Dominion	61%	28.6–24.2	52.8
LSU @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss	76%	32.4–21.5	53.9
Montana @ Oregon State (FCS)	Oregon State	87%	35.1–17.1	52.2
Buffalo @ Penn State	Penn State	96%	40.0–9.5	49.5
Western Michigan @ Rice	Western Michigan	69%	28.5–21.0	49.5
USC @ Rutgers	USC	83%	36.8–21.9	58.7
North Dakota State @ Sacramento State	North Dakota State	65%	29.1–23.1	52.2
Nicholls @ Sam Houston (FCS)	Sam Houston	79%	32.0–19.3	51.3
James Madison @ San Diego State	James Madison	71%	30.0–21.3	51.3
Fresno State @ San José State	Fresno State	69%	29.0–21.2	50.2
Ohio @ South Alabama	Ohio	61%	28.6–24.6	53.2
Mississippi State @ South Carolina	South Carolina	58%	28.6–25.5	54.1
Delaware State @ South Florida (FCS)	South Florida	98%	48.9–12.5	61.4
UConn @ Southern Miss	UConn	60%	30.5–26.6	57.1
Arkansas State @ TCU	TCU	83%	35.8–20.2	56.0
Kennesaw State @ Tennessee	Tennessee	93%	41.0–16.2	57.2
UTSA @ Texas	Texas	88%	38.8–19.1	57.9
Kentucky @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M	85%	34.3–17.4	51.7
North Texas @ Texas State	North Texas	62%	36.5–31.8	68.3
Temple @ Toledo	Toledo	71%	30.5–21.8	52.3
East Texas A&M @ Tulsa (FCS)	Tulsa	91%	39.0–16.0	55.0
Georgia State @ UCF	UCF	76%	32.9–21.8	54.8
Purdue @ UCLA	UCLA	79%	32.3–19.5	51.8
SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe (FCS)	UL Monroe	83%	33.3–17.8	51.1
Utah State @ Utah	Utah	95%	43.7–15.0	58.7
NC State @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	82%	35.7–20.9	56.6
West Virginia vs. Virginia (N)	Virginia	71%	31.0–22.0	53.0
Eastern Washington @ Washington (FCS)	Washington	99%	49.8–5.0	54.8
Duquesne @ Washington State (FCS)	Washington State	95%	41.1–11.6	52.7
Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin	Wisconsin	87%	31.4–13.3	44.7

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	71/86	82.6%	0.3855	-0.1866 ± 0.0539
Last 30 days	145/169	85.8%	0.3374	-0.2089 ± 0.0363
Season to date	145/169	85.8%	0.3374	-0.2089 ± 0.0363
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	68/87	78.2%	0.4724	-0.1251 ± 0.0548

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 71/86 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
✅	2026-09-10	Florida A&M @ Miami	Miami (99%)	77–7	0.01
❌	2026-09-11	Rutgers @ Boston College	Rutgers (52%)	28–21	0.74
✅	2026-09-11	Missouri @ Kansas	Missouri (65%)	21–38	0.43
✅	2026-09-11	Villanova @ Louisville	Louisville (98%)	59–13	0.02
✅	2026-09-11	Richmond @ NC State	NC State (97%)	73–0	0.03
✅	2026-09-11	Norfolk State @ Virginia	Virginia (99%)	59–3	0.01
❌	2026-09-12	North Dakota State @ Air Force	Air Force (59%)	32–38	0.89
✅	2026-09-12	Robert Morris @ Akron	Akron (87%)	45–10	0.14
✅	2026-09-12	West Georgia @ Arkansas State	Arkansas State (94%)	52–7	0.07
❌	2026-09-12	South Florida @ Army	Army (55%)	24–28	0.81
✅	2026-09-12	Southern Miss @ Auburn	Auburn (84%)	43–8	0.17
✅	2026-09-12	Arizona @ BYU	BYU (65%)	28–17	0.43
✅	2026-09-12	Stony Brook @ Ball State	Ball State (84%)	41–17	0.17
✅	2026-09-12	Prairie View A&M @ Baylor	Baylor (97%)	44–3	0.04
✅	2026-09-12	Memphis @ Boise State	Boise State (55%)	38–20	0.60
✅	2026-09-12	Colgate @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan (90%)	13–10	0.10
✅	2026-09-12	Western Carolina @ Cincinnati	Cincinnati (97%)	62–10	0.03
✅	2026-09-12	Georgia Southern @ Clemson	Clemson (73%)	22–7	0.31
✅	2026-09-12	Fordham @ Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina (93%)	45–7	0.08
✅	2026-09-12	Weber State @ Colorado	Colorado (96%)	52–21	0.05
✅	2026-09-12	Southern Utah @ Colorado State	Colorado State (90%)	58–24	0.10
❌	2026-09-12	App State @ East Carolina	East Carolina (78%)	24–27	1.52
✅	2026-09-12	Campbell @ Florida	Florida (98%)	52–3	0.02
❌	2026-09-12	Navy @ Florida Atlantic	Navy (81%)	38–30	1.66
✅	2026-09-12	Buffalo @ Florida International	Florida International (60%)	33–20	0.51
✅	2026-09-12	Sacramento State @ Fresno State	Fresno State (82%)	49–3	0.20
✅	2026-09-12	Western Kentucky @ Georgia	Georgia (97%)	70–20	0.03
✅	2026-09-12	Tennessee @ Georgia Tech	Tennessee (61%)	24–45	0.50
✅	2026-09-12	New Mexico State @ Hawai'i	Hawai'i (78%)	29–19	0.25
✅	2026-09-12	Southern @ Houston	Houston (98%)	77–6	0.02
❌	2026-09-12	Duke @ Illinois	Illinois (55%)	27–31	0.81
✅	2026-09-12	Howard @ Indiana	Indiana (100%)	55–0	0.00
✅	2026-09-12	Iowa State @ Iowa	Iowa (75%)	16–13	0.28
✅	2026-09-12	Wagner @ James Madison	James Madison (99%)	87–3	0.01
✅	2026-09-12	Washington State @ Kansas State	Kansas State (76%)	34–7	0.28
❌	2026-09-12	Georgia State @ Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State (77%)	17–31	1.46
✅	2026-09-12	Wofford @ Kent State	Kent State (86%)	36–15	0.15
✅	2026-09-12	Alabama @ Kentucky	Alabama (74%)	17–45	0.30
✅	2026-09-12	Louisiana Tech @ LSU	LSU (86%)	45–14	0.15
✅	2026-09-12	Gardner-Webb @ Liberty	Liberty (89%)	24–23	0.12
✅	2026-09-12	Middle Tennessee @ Marshall	Marshall (82%)	28–26	0.20
✅	2026-09-12	Sacred Heart @ Massachusetts	Massachusetts (79%)	37–10	0.24
✅	2026-09-12	Holy Cross @ Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) (92%)	45–7	0.08
✅	2026-09-12	Oklahoma @ Michigan	Michigan (52%)	17–10	0.66
✅	2026-09-12	Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State	Michigan State (84%)	35–7	0.17
❌	2026-09-12	Mississippi State @ Minnesota	Minnesota (74%)	13–38	1.33
✅	2026-09-12	Lindenwood @ Missouri State	Missouri State (89%)	48–14	0.11
✅	2026-09-12	Bowling Green @ Nebraska	Nebraska (94%)	56–7	0.06
❌	2026-09-12	Montana State @ Nevada	Nevada (93%)	7–20	2.61
✅	2026-09-12	Mercyhurst @ New Mexico	New Mexico (97%)	70–7	0.03
✅	2026-09-12	East Tennessee State @ North Carolina	North Carolina (96%)	35–3	0.04
✅	2026-09-12	UNLV @ North Texas	North Texas (64%)	44–6	0.44
❌	2026-09-12	Illinois State @ Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois (87%)	24–28	2.03
✅	2026-09-12	Rice @ Notre Dame	Notre Dame (96%)	52–0	0.04
✅	2026-09-12	Jacksonville State @ Ohio	Ohio (74%)	29–27	0.30
❌	2026-09-12	Oregon @ Oklahoma State	Oregon (96%)	39–31	3.13
✅	2026-09-12	Charlotte @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss (99%)	41–9	0.01
✅	2026-09-12	Texas Tech @ Oregon State	Texas Tech (94%)	24–35	0.06
✅	2026-09-12	UCF @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (72%)	12–7	0.32
✅	2026-09-12	Wake Forest @ Purdue	Wake Forest (63%)	36–38	0.47
✅	2026-09-12	UC Davis @ SMU	SMU (99%)	56–10	0.01
✅	2026-09-12	Tulsa @ Sam Houston	Tulsa (62%)	17–23	0.47
✅	2026-09-12	Cal Poly @ San José State	San José State (89%)	30–20	0.11
✅	2026-09-12	Towson @ South Carolina	South Carolina (98%)	45–9	0.02
❌	2026-09-12	California @ Syracuse	Syracuse (54%)	18–21	0.78
✅	2026-09-12	Grambling @ TCU	TCU (98%)	63–7	0.02
✅	2026-09-12	Penn State @ Temple	Penn State (88%)	9–27	0.12
✅	2026-09-12	Ohio State @ Texas	Texas (53%)	24–23	0.64
✅	2026-09-12	Arizona State @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M (77%)	48–20	0.26
❌	2026-09-12	UTSA @ Texas State	Texas State (54%)	26–31	0.77
✅	2026-09-12	Central Connecticut @ Toledo	Toledo (95%)	63–10	0.05
✅	2026-09-12	Alabama State @ Troy	Troy (95%)	34–17	0.05
✅	2026-09-12	South Alabama @ Tulane	Tulane (80%)	28–24	0.23
✅	2026-09-12	UL Monroe @ UAB	UAB (68%)	26–20	0.38
✅	2026-09-12	San Diego State @ UCLA	UCLA (67%)	28–10	0.40
❌	2026-09-12	Maryland @ UConn	UConn (65%)	14–38	1.04
✅	2026-09-12	Louisiana @ USC	USC (90%)	49–30	0.11
✅	2026-09-12	Texas Southern @ UTEP	UTEP (81%)	51–10	0.21
✅	2026-09-12	Arkansas @ Utah	Utah (84%)	43–10	0.17
✅	2026-09-12	Delaware @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt (94%)	35–26	0.06
❌	2026-09-12	Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech	Old Dominion (66%)	44–21	1.08
✅	2026-09-12	Utah State @ Washington	Washington (93%)	16–14	0.07
✅	2026-09-12	UT Martin @ West Virginia	West Virginia (97%)	52–7	0.03
✅	2026-09-12	Monmouth @ Western Michigan	Western Michigan (97%)	49–14	0.04
✅	2026-09-12	Western Illinois @ Wisconsin	Wisconsin (97%)	36–9	0.03
✅	2026-09-12	Northern Colorado @ Wyoming	Wyoming (86%)	21–13	0.15

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	Indiana	Big Ten	2-0	10.6-1.4	100%	23%	64%	45%
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	2-0	10.2-1.8	100%	18%	57%	32%
3	Miami	ACC	2-0	10.1-1.9	100%	12%	64%	44%
4	Notre Dame	Ind.	2-0	10.1-1.9	100%	13%	—	—
5	James Madison	Sun Belt	2-0	9.8-2.2	99%	12%	63%	47%
6	Georgia	SEC	2-0	9.5-2.5	99%	7%	39%	22%
7	Utah	Big 12	2-0	9.5-2.5	99%	8%	38%	22%
8	Penn State	Big Ten	2-0	9.4-2.6	99%	6%	28%	10%
9	South Florida	American	2-0	9.4-2.6	99%	6%	38%	20%
10	SMU	ACC	2-0	9.3-2.7	99%	5%	45%	20%
11	Ole Miss	SEC	2-0	9.2-2.8	99%	5%	30%	17%
12	Texas	SEC	2-0	9.1-2.9	98%	5%	31%	16%
13	Alabama	SEC	2-0	9.1-2.9	99%	5%	29%	15%
14	BYU	Big 12	2-0	9.1-2.9	98%	4%	41%	22%
15	Iowa	Big Ten	2-0	9.0-3.0	99%	4%	22%	9%
16	Duke	ACC	2-0	9.0-3.0	99%	3%	18%	9%
17	Virginia	ACC	2-0	8.9-3.1	98%	4%	24%	10%
18	New Mexico	MWC	2-0	8.9-3.1	98%	2%	58%	37%
19	Texas A&M	SEC	2-0	8.6-3.4	97%	3%	18%	9%
20	Pittsburgh	ACC	2-0	8.5-3.5	97%	1%	11%	4%
21	Ohio	MAC	1-1	8.5-3.5	96%	<1%	50%	29%
22	North Texas	American	1-1	8.4-3.6	97%	<1%	39%	22%
23	Vanderbilt	SEC	2-0	8.3-3.7	94%	2%	16%	7%
24	Kansas State	Big 12	2-0	8.3-3.7	94%	2%	18%	7%
25	North Dakota State	MWC	3-0	8.3-3.7	96%	1%	36%	16%

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 44%, SMU 20%, Virginia 10%, Duke 9%
American Athletic	North Texas 22%, South Florida 20%, Tulane 15%, UTSA 12%
Big 12	Texas Tech 32%, Utah 22%, BYU 22%, Kansas State 7%
Big Ten	Indiana 45%, Ohio State 13%, Penn State 10%, Iowa 9%
Conference USA	Florida International 19%, Jacksonville State 16%, Delaware 15%, Kennesaw State 13%
Mid-American	Western Michigan 31%, Ohio 29%, Toledo 18%, Miami (OH) 8%
Mountain West	New Mexico 37%, UNLV 26%, North Dakota State 16%, Hawai'i 8%
Pac-12	Boise State 38%, Fresno State 18%, Texas State 15%, San Diego State 13%
SEC	Georgia 22%, Ole Miss 17%, Texas 16%, Alabama 15%
Sun Belt	James Madison 47%, Old Dominion 13%, Troy 6%, Louisiana 6%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 703 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb