College Football Update

Run date 2026-09-25 · week 4 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Indiana	Big Ten	3-0	+129	1943
2	Georgia	SEC	3-0	+138	1869
3	Ole Miss	SEC	3-0	+43	1856
4	Texas	SEC	3-0	+77	1840
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	2-1	+108	1839
6	Miami	ACC	3-0	+122	1830
7	Notre Dame	Ind.	3-0	+97	1819
8	Alabama	SEC	3-0	+80	1813
9	Oregon	Big Ten	2-1	+83	1768
10	Texas Tech	Big 12	3-0	+36	1768
11	Utah	Big 12	3-0	+118	1759
12	Iowa	Big Ten	3-0	+98	1758
13	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-0	+32	1756
14	Penn State	Big Ten	3-0	+105	1745
15	BYU	Big 12	3-0	+85	1739
16	USC	Big Ten	4-0	+81	1735
17	Michigan	Big Ten	3-0	+43	1722
18	Washington	Big Ten	3-0	+48	1706
19	Tennessee	SEC	3-0	+101	1705
20	Duke	ACC	3-0	+46	1704
21	Oklahoma	SEC	2-1	+52	1701
22	Texas A&M	SEC	2-1	+68	1698
23	Missouri	SEC	3-0	+67	1692
24	LSU	SEC	2-1	+64	1675
25	Louisville	ACC	2-1	+53	1664

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1686	1844	1695	1532	10	Georgia (1869)
2	FBS Independents	2	1642	—	1642	—	1	Notre Dame (1819)
3	Big Ten	18	1632	1827	1604	1428	8	Indiana (1943)
4	Big 12	16	1572	1730	1583	1409	3	Texas Tech (1768)
5	ACC	17	1539	1712	1524	1398	3	Miami (1830)
6	American Athletic	14	1410	1527	1474	1249	0	South Florida (1555)
7	Pac-12	8	1397	1492	1417	1303	0	Boise State (1543)
8	Sun Belt	14	1364	1488	1372	1227	0	James Madison (1656)
9	Mountain West	10	1300	1423	1274	1189	0	New Mexico (1479)
10	Mid-American	13	1276	1422	1233	1165	0	Western Michigan (1502)
11	Conference USA	10	1275	1341	1294	1199	0	Liberty (1362)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-09-25 · 5 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Clemson @ California	Clemson	64%	29.1–22.2	51.4
Northwestern @ Indiana	Indiana	95%	35.6–12.8	48.4
Howard @ Rutgers (FCS)	Rutgers	94%	42.5–15.1	57.6
Army @ Temple	Army	56%	29.3–22.9	52.2
Navy @ UAB	Navy	71%	33.8–23.5	57.2

2026-09-26 · 65 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
UNLV @ Akron	UNLV	75%	30.7–22.4	53.1
South Carolina @ Alabama	Alabama	89%	34.5–16.4	50.9
Tulsa @ Arkansas	Arkansas	62%	34.2–23.5	57.7
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State	Arkansas State	56%	29.7–23.5	53.2
Vanderbilt @ Auburn	Vanderbilt	62%	31.5–22.4	53.9
Colorado @ Baylor	Baylor	74%	32.6–23.8	56.5
Virginia Tech @ Boston College	Virginia Tech	66%	28.2–25.3	53.6
South Florida @ Bowling Green	South Florida	92%	37.6–17.9	55.5
Robert Morris @ Buffalo (FCS)	Buffalo	88%	36.7–17.6	54.3
Louisiana @ Charlotte	Louisiana	79%	33.2–21.5	54.7
Kansas State @ Cincinnati	Kansas State	53%	29.7–25.9	55.6
William & Mary @ Duke (FCS)	Duke	99%	51.9–7.0	58.9
North Carolina Central @ East Carolina (FCS)	East Carolina	97%	44.9–12.0	56.8
Lindenwood @ Eastern Michigan (FCS)	Eastern Michigan	86%	35.8–17.9	53.8
Ole Miss @ Florida	Ole Miss	67%	33.0–22.8	55.8
Long Island University @ Florida International (FCS)	Florida International	91%	39.2–16.4	55.7
Central Arkansas @ Florida State (FCS)	Florida State	96%	43.3–13.3	56.5
Rice @ Fresno State	Fresno State	80%	31.8–16.5	48.3
Oklahoma @ Georgia	Georgia	65%	30.0–17.8	47.9
Houston @ Georgia Southern	Houston	72%	31.4–22.5	53.9
Northern Illinois @ Georgia State	Georgia State	78%	29.9–21.7	51.7
Utah @ Iowa State	Utah	77%	28.7–22.6	51.4
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State	59%	31.8–21.9	53.7
Ball State @ Kent State	Kent State	62%	29.4–23.3	52.6
South Alabama @ Kentucky	Kentucky	76%	34.2–19.7	54.0
Texas A&M @ LSU	LSU	60%	26.8–25.2	51.9
Wake Forest @ Louisville	Louisville	78%	33.2–23.1	56.3
Gardner-Webb @ Marshall (FCS)	Marshall	95%	43.5–14.0	57.5
UCLA @ Maryland	UCLA	64%	28.5–24.6	53.2
Central Michigan @ Miami	Miami	95%	40.1–9.0	49.1
UConn @ Miami (OH)	UConn	55%	28.8–24.3	53.1
Iowa @ Michigan	Michigan	70%	22.1–21.2	43.3
Nebraska @ Michigan State	Nebraska	55%	26.0–23.6	49.6
Missouri @ Mississippi State	Missouri	50%	28.3–27.1	55.4
App State @ NC State	NC State	77%	33.6–22.4	56.0
Air Force @ Nevada	Air Force	55%	25.6–23.7	49.3
New Mexico @ New Mexico State	New Mexico	79%	33.6–19.4	53.0
Houston Christian @ North Texas (FCS)	North Texas	97%	50.7–16.5	67.2
Stonehill @ Ohio (FCS)	Ohio	95%	42.8–13.4	56.3
Illinois @ Ohio State	Ohio State	79%	31.9–16.6	48.5
James Madison @ Old Dominion	James Madison	68%	30.3–22.2	52.6
Wisconsin @ Penn State	Penn State	74%	30.4–15.2	45.6
Bucknell @ Pittsburgh (FCS)	Pittsburgh	98%	48.6–9.5	58.1
Notre Dame @ Purdue	Notre Dame	89%	40.2–17.8	58.1
Missouri State @ SMU	SMU	96%	40.7–15.7	56.4
Massachusetts @ Sacramento State	Sacramento State	53%	27.5–24.3	51.9
Georgia Tech @ Stanford	Georgia Tech	63%	27.3–26.6	53.9
Texas @ Tennessee	Texas	61%	30.2–25.5	55.7
Incarnate Word @ Texas State (FCS)	Texas State	97%	48.4–15.2	63.6
Sam Houston @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech	94%	45.0–8.0	53.0
San Diego State @ Toledo	Toledo	65%	26.5–22.0	48.5
Southern Miss @ Tulane	Tulane	91%	35.4–17.4	52.9
TCU @ UCF	TCU	54%	29.6–23.8	53.4
Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe	Florida Atlantic	74%	33.3–23.4	56.7
Oregon @ USC	USC	62%	30.3–29.2	59.5
Oregon State @ UTEP	Oregon State	65%	27.2–26.3	53.5
Colorado State @ UTSA	UTSA	82%	36.6–21.3	57.8
Troy @ Utah State	Utah State	50%	24.2–28.2	52.4
Delaware @ Virginia	Virginia	87%	34.7–18.7	53.4
Minnesota @ Washington	Washington	86%	29.8–18.2	48.0
Arizona @ Washington State	Arizona	62%	28.8–21.4	50.2
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia	West Virginia	77%	34.8–20.2	55.1
Mercyhurst @ Western Kentucky (FCS)	Western Kentucky	91%	38.8–16.9	55.7
Boise State @ Western Michigan	Western Michigan	56%	25.6–25.0	50.6
Hawai'i @ Wyoming	Hawai'i	68%	26.0–19.1	45.1

2026-10-01 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	New Mexico State	54%	24.9–28.7	53.6
North Texas @ Tulsa	North Texas	70%	35.6–27.7	63.3

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	64/75	85.3%	0.3610	-0.2267 ± 0.0428
Last 30 days	210/245	85.7%	0.3439	-0.2147 ± 0.0282
Season to date	210/245	85.7%	0.3439	-0.2147 ± 0.0282
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	116/145	80.0%	0.4515	-0.1535 ± 0.0386

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 64/75 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
✅	2026-09-18	Portland State @ Oregon	Oregon (99%)	84–0	0.01
✅	2026-09-18	Houston @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech (82%)	28–26	0.20
✅	2026-09-18	Miami @ Wake Forest	Miami (76%)	20–33	0.27
✅	2026-09-19	Florida State @ Alabama	Alabama (86%)	50–36	0.15
✅	2026-09-19	Charlotte @ App State	App State (77%)	26–21	0.26
✅	2026-09-19	Northern Illinois @ Arizona	Arizona (94%)	42–17	0.06
✅	2026-09-19	Georgia @ Arkansas	Georgia (78%)	17–45	0.25
❌	2026-09-19	Florida @ Auburn	Auburn (65%)	39–44	1.06
✅	2026-09-19	Louisiana Tech @ Baylor	Baylor (71%)	36–19	0.35
✅	2026-09-19	South Dakota @ Boise State	Boise State (98%)	38–24	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	Maine @ Boston College	Boston College (95%)	22–16	0.05
✅	2026-09-19	Wagner @ California	California (95%)	49–7	0.05
✅	2026-09-19	Wyoming @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan (65%)	24–10	0.43
✅	2026-09-19	Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati	Cincinnati (83%)	35–31	0.18
✅	2026-09-19	North Carolina @ Clemson	Clemson (74%)	28–20	0.30
✅	2026-09-19	BYU @ Colorado State	BYU (82%)	23–41	0.20
✅	2026-09-19	Coastal Carolina @ Delaware	Delaware (60%)	22–14	0.52
✅	2026-09-19	Stanford @ Duke	Duke (90%)	35–7	0.10
✅	2026-09-19	Florida International @ Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic (54%)	16–10	0.62
✅	2026-09-19	Mercer @ Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech (97%)	44–11	0.03
✅	2026-09-19	Southern Illinois @ Illinois	Illinois (98%)	48–10	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	Western Kentucky @ Indiana	Indiana (98%)	38–0	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	Northern Iowa @ Iowa	Iowa (99%)	55–0	0.01
✅	2026-09-19	Bowling Green @ Iowa State	Iowa State (93%)	55–7	0.08
✅	2026-09-19	Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State (51%)	31–27	0.67
✅	2026-09-19	Arizona State vs. Kansas (N)	Arizona State (55%)	17–24	0.59
✅	2026-09-19	Tulane @ Kansas State	Kansas State (72%)	31–20	0.33
✅	2026-09-19	Ball State @ Liberty	Liberty (82%)	51–15	0.20
✅	2026-09-19	UAB @ Louisiana	Louisiana (60%)	21–14	0.51
✅	2026-09-19	SMU @ Louisville	Louisville (52%)	41–31	0.66
❌	2026-09-19	Virginia Tech @ Maryland	Maryland (63%)	26–35	0.98
✅	2026-09-19	Stonehill @ Massachusetts	Massachusetts (81%)	36–14	0.21
✅	2026-09-19	UT Martin @ Memphis	Memphis (96%)	45–21	0.04
✅	2026-09-19	UTEP @ Michigan	Michigan (97%)	52–17	0.03
❌	2026-09-19	Nevada @ Middle Tennessee	Nevada (51%)	27–20	0.72
✅	2026-09-19	Akron @ Minnesota	Minnesota (82%)	41–7	0.20
✅	2026-09-19	Troy @ Missouri	Missouri (88%)	27–17	0.13
✅	2026-09-19	Marshall @ Missouri State	Marshall (61%)	24–30	0.49
✅	2026-09-19	North Dakota @ Nebraska	Nebraska (98%)	34–7	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	Colorado @ Northwestern	Northwestern (72%)	41–7	0.33
✅	2026-09-19	Michigan State @ Notre Dame	Notre Dame (92%)	27–10	0.09
✅	2026-09-19	Kent State @ Ohio State	Ohio State (98%)	59–3	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	New Mexico @ Oklahoma	Oklahoma (79%)	14–6	0.23
✅	2026-09-19	Murray State @ Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State (92%)	59–0	0.08
❌	2026-09-19	East Carolina @ Old Dominion	Old Dominion (68%)	17–20	1.13
✅	2026-09-19	LSU @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss (65%)	32–24	0.43
✅	2026-09-19	Montana @ Oregon State	Oregon State (87%)	52–17	0.14
✅	2026-09-19	Buffalo @ Penn State	Penn State (96%)	55–13	0.04
✅	2026-09-19	Western Michigan @ Rice	Western Michigan (70%)	21–28	0.35
✅	2026-09-19	USC @ Rutgers	USC (87%)	35–42	0.14
✅	2026-09-19	North Dakota State @ Sacramento State	North Dakota State (79%)	10–31	0.24
✅	2026-09-19	Nicholls @ Sam Houston	Sam Houston (79%)	59–0	0.24
✅	2026-09-19	James Madison @ San Diego State	James Madison (69%)	13–26	0.38
✅	2026-09-19	Fresno State @ San José State	Fresno State (68%)	10–26	0.39
❌	2026-09-19	Ohio @ South Alabama	Ohio (55%)	41–36	0.79
❌	2026-09-19	Mississippi State @ South Carolina	South Carolina (69%)	34–41	1.18
✅	2026-09-19	Delaware State @ South Florida	South Florida (98%)	59–17	0.02
✅	2026-09-19	UConn @ Southern Miss	UConn (62%)	20–48	0.48
✅	2026-09-19	Arkansas State @ TCU	TCU (82%)	31–7	0.20
✅	2026-09-19	Kennesaw State @ Tennessee	Tennessee (93%)	42–9	0.08
✅	2026-09-19	UTSA @ Texas	Texas (91%)	30–6	0.09
❌	2026-09-19	Kentucky @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M (91%)	21–31	2.40
❌	2026-09-19	North Texas @ Texas State	North Texas (68%)	49–35	1.14
✅	2026-09-19	Temple @ Toledo	Toledo (71%)	49–48	0.35
✅	2026-09-19	East Texas A&M @ Tulsa	Tulsa (91%)	42–0	0.09
✅	2026-09-19	Georgia State @ UCF	UCF (74%)	44–30	0.30
✅	2026-09-19	Purdue @ UCLA	UCLA (78%)	52–38	0.25
❌	2026-09-19	SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe	UL Monroe (83%)	35–38	1.78
✅	2026-09-19	Utah State @ Utah	Utah (95%)	33–0	0.05
✅	2026-09-19	NC State @ Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt (83%)	35–31	0.18
❌	2026-09-19	West Virginia vs. Virginia (N)	Virginia (74%)	27–38	1.34
✅	2026-09-19	Eastern Washington @ Washington	Washington (99%)	48–16	0.01
✅	2026-09-19	Duquesne @ Washington State	Washington State (95%)	48–7	0.05
✅	2026-09-19	Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin	Wisconsin (77%)	54–10	0.26
❌	2026-09-24	Liberty @ Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina (54%)	17–34	0.78

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	Indiana	Big Ten	3-0	10.6-1.4	100%	24%	63%	45%
2	Texas Tech	Big 12	3-0	10.4-1.6	100%	20%	60%	33%
3	James Madison	Sun Belt	3-0	10.4-1.6	100%	20%	70%	54%
4	Miami	ACC	3-0	10.3-1.7	100%	16%	72%	51%
5	Notre Dame	Ind.	3-0	10.3-1.7	100%	16%	—	—
6	Georgia	SEC	3-0	9.7-2.3	100%	8%	43%	25%
7	Utah	Big 12	3-0	9.6-2.4	99%	9%	36%	20%
8	Ole Miss	SEC	3-0	9.5-2.5	100%	6%	36%	20%
9	South Florida	American	3-0	9.5-2.5	100%	7%	39%	21%
10	Alabama	SEC	3-0	9.4-2.6	100%	6%	33%	16%
11	Penn State	Big Ten	3-0	9.4-2.6	99%	6%	29%	11%
12	Duke	ACC	3-0	9.4-2.6	99%	5%	24%	12%
13	Texas	SEC	3-0	9.3-2.7	99%	7%	34%	18%
14	BYU	Big 12	3-0	9.2-2.8	99%	5%	40%	21%
15	North Dakota State	MWC	4-0	9.1-2.9	100%	3%	47%	23%
16	Iowa	Big Ten	3-0	8.9-3.1	98%	3%	20%	8%
17	Kansas State	Big 12	3-0	8.9-3.1	98%	4%	21%	9%
18	Pittsburgh	ACC	3-0	8.7-3.3	98%	1%	12%	4%
19	Western Michigan	MAC	2-1	8.7-3.3	98%	<1%	56%	36%
20	New Mexico	MWC	2-1	8.7-3.3	98%	<1%	54%	33%
21	Louisville	ACC	2-1	8.5-3.5	97%	<1%	39%	15%
22	SMU	ACC	2-1	8.5-3.5	98%	<1%	20%	7%
23	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-0	8.4-3.6	96%	2%	16%	7%
24	USC	Big Ten	4-0	8.4-3.6	97%	1%	12%	5%
25	Toledo	MAC	2-1	8.3-3.7	96%	<1%	40%	21%

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 51%, Louisville 15%, Duke 12%, SMU 7%
American Athletic	South Florida 21%, Tulane 14%, North Texas 13%, East Carolina 13%
Big 12	Texas Tech 33%, BYU 21%, Utah 20%, Kansas State 9%
Big Ten	Indiana 45%, Ohio State 13%, Penn State 11%, Oregon 8%
Conference USA	Liberty 21%, Jacksonville State 19%, Delaware 17%, Florida International 11%
Mid-American	Western Michigan 36%, Toledo 21%, Ohio 21%, Miami (OH) 7%
Mountain West	New Mexico 33%, UNLV 26%, North Dakota State 23%, Hawai'i 8%
Pac-12	Boise State 34%, Texas State 23%, Fresno State 20%, Washington State 12%
SEC	Georgia 25%, Ole Miss 20%, Texas 18%, Alabama 16%
Sun Belt	James Madison 54%, Old Dominion 9%, Louisiana 7%, Marshall 6%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 627 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb