College Football Update

Run date 2026-10-01 · week 5 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Indiana	Big Ten	4-0	+135	1948
2	Georgia	SEC	4-0	+166	1893
3	Texas	SEC	4-0	+80	1858
4	Ohio State	Big Ten	3-1	+131	1856
5	Miami	ACC	4-0	+171	1834
6	Notre Dame	Ind.	4-0	+136	1829
7	Alabama	SEC	4-0	+111	1827
8	Oregon	Big Ten	3-1	+97	1818
9	Utah	Big 12	4-0	+132	1790
10	Ole Miss	SEC	3-1	+19	1772
11	Iowa	Big Ten	4-0	+99	1770
12	Texas Tech	Big 12	4-0	+71	1770
13	BYU	Big 12	3-0	+85	1739
14	LSU	SEC	3-1	+93	1729
15	Michigan	Big Ten	3-1	+42	1709
16	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-1	+26	1707
17	Duke	ACC	4-0	+101	1705
18	Florida	SEC	4-0	+123	1705
19	Penn State	Big Ten	3-1	+101	1698
20	James Madison	Sun Belt	4-0	+130	1688
21	Tennessee	SEC	3-1	+98	1688
22	USC	Big Ten	4-1	+67	1685
23	Oklahoma	SEC	2-2	+24	1677
24	Washington	Big Ten	3-1	+45	1668
25	Mississippi State	SEC	4-0	+88	1657

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1689	1837	1682	1552	10	Georgia (1893)
2	Big Ten	18	1632	1848	1636	1403	8	Indiana (1948)
3	FBS Independents	2	1632	—	1632	—	1	Notre Dame (1829)
4	Big 12	16	1575	1736	1570	1426	3	Utah (1790)
5	ACC	17	1542	1706	1549	1385	2	Miami (1834)
6	Pac-12	8	1410	1505	1383	1315	0	Boise State (1602)
7	American Athletic	14	1410	1534	1472	1239	0	South Florida (1562)
8	Sun Belt	14	1359	1492	1358	1226	1	James Madison (1688)
9	Mountain West	10	1296	1424	1285	1175	0	New Mexico (1497)
10	Mid-American	13	1276	1427	1246	1146	0	Toledo (1471)
11	Conference USA	10	1271	1344	1291	1188	0	Jacksonville State (1368)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-10-01 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	New Mexico State	58%	24.3–29.8	54.1
North Texas @ Tulsa	North Texas	69%	36.3–26.8	63.1

2026-10-02 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Liberty @ Delaware	Liberty	65%	26.9–28.0	54.8
Penn State @ Northwestern	Penn State	63%	25.5–21.8	47.3
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	60%	26.9–26.7	53.6

2026-10-03 · 54 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Navy @ Air Force	Navy	50%	29.1–23.6	52.7
Cincinnati @ Arizona	Arizona	66%	30.3–23.5	53.9
Baylor @ Arizona State	Arizona State	58%	30.8–25.1	55.9
Toledo @ Ball State	Toledo	89%	34.4–18.5	52.9
Utah State @ Boise State	Boise State	85%	36.3–18.6	54.9
Western Michigan @ Buffalo	Western Michigan	72%	28.6–20.5	49.1
Akron @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan	72%	28.4–19.0	47.4
Memphis @ Charlotte	Memphis	88%	37.1–20.0	57.1
Miami @ Clemson	Miami	82%	29.5–20.6	50.0
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	58%	28.9–26.5	55.4
Texas Tech @ Colorado	Texas Tech	90%	36.5–17.8	54.3
Oregon State @ Colorado State	Colorado State	51%	27.9–25.8	53.7
Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic (FCS)	Florida Atlantic	95%	43.3–15.6	59.0
Virginia @ Florida State	Virginia	65%	28.5–22.4	50.9
Vanderbilt @ Georgia	Georgia	80%	34.1–20.9	55.0
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	Old Dominion	54%	29.6–25.5	55.1
San José State @ Hawai'i	Hawai'i	62%	29.0–22.8	51.8
UCF @ Houston	Houston	76%	30.5–22.3	52.9
Purdue @ Illinois	Illinois	84%	36.0–19.7	55.7
Ohio State @ Iowa	Ohio State	75%	22.5–20.6	43.1
West Virginia @ Iowa State	Iowa State	76%	31.0–22.5	53.5
Marshall @ James Madison	James Madison	87%	37.2–19.9	57.1
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas	Kansas	74%	34.9–19.0	54.0
Ohio @ Kent State	Ohio	82%	30.1–23.2	53.3
McNeese @ LSU (FCS)	LSU	99%	51.0–4.7	55.7
Arkansas State @ Louisiana	Louisiana	73%	29.7–23.9	53.6
Army @ Louisiana Tech	Army	63%	26.6–22.1	48.7
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts	Massachusetts	63%	27.1–24.0	51.1
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)	Miami (OH)	80%	30.9–15.7	46.6
Michigan @ Minnesota	Michigan	74%	24.7–20.8	45.5
Alabama @ Mississippi State	Alabama	69%	32.1–25.4	57.5
Florida @ Missouri	Missouri	54%	26.4–26.4	52.8
Louisville @ NC State	Louisville	69%	29.6–27.7	57.4
Maryland @ Nebraska	Nebraska	87%	33.8–18.0	51.8
UTEP @ New Mexico	New Mexico	96%	39.3–15.1	54.4
Notre Dame @ North Carolina	Notre Dame	92%	35.4–16.4	51.8
Wyoming @ North Dakota State	North Dakota State	80%	27.8–17.1	44.9
UTSA @ Rice	UTSA	77%	35.7–23.3	59.0
Indiana @ Rutgers	Indiana	90%	41.9–14.1	56.0
Boston College @ SMU	SMU	85%	36.3–18.3	54.6
Texas State @ San Diego State	Texas State	60%	30.5–25.5	56.0
UL Monroe @ South Alabama	South Alabama	85%	36.6–19.8	56.4
Kentucky @ South Carolina	Kentucky	51%	26.4–24.7	51.1
Temple @ South Florida	South Florida	87%	38.4–20.4	58.8
BYU @ TCU	BYU	67%	29.5–22.7	52.3
Auburn @ Tennessee	Tennessee	64%	31.3–22.9	54.2
Arkansas @ Texas A&M	Texas A&M	79%	33.8–22.3	56.0
Samford @ UAB (FCS)	UAB	92%	40.2–16.7	56.9
Syracuse @ UConn	UConn	67%	32.9–24.1	57.1
California @ UNLV	UNLV	77%	30.3–23.2	53.5
Washington @ USC	USC	54%	29.7–25.9	55.5
Stanford @ Wake Forest	Wake Forest	81%	31.4–22.9	54.3
Fresno State @ Washington State	Fresno State	63%	25.1–22.5	47.6
Michigan State @ Wisconsin	Wisconsin	74%	27.0–17.6	44.6

2026-10-06 · 1 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Southern Miss @ Troy	Troy	75%	29.8–20.8	50.6

2026-10-07 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
New Mexico State @ Florida International	Florida International	81%	32.2–20.2	52.4
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State	Jacksonville State	56%	26.7–24.6	51.3

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	53/71	74.7%	0.4691	-0.1954 ± 0.0499
Last 30 days	263/315	83.5%	0.3707	-0.2103 ± 0.0246
Season to date	263/315	83.5%	0.3707	-0.2103 ± 0.0246
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	156/202	77.2%	0.4812	-0.1521 ± 0.0325

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 53/71 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
❌	2026-09-24	Liberty @ Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina (54%)	17–34	0.78
✅	2026-09-25	Clemson @ California	Clemson (64%)	10–24	0.45
✅	2026-09-25	Northwestern @ Indiana	Indiana (95%)	29–23	0.06
✅	2026-09-25	Howard @ Rutgers	Rutgers (94%)	58–7	0.06
✅	2026-09-25	Army @ Temple	Army (56%)	17–21	0.59
❌	2026-09-25	Navy @ UAB	Navy (72%)	24–20	1.27
✅	2026-09-26	UNLV @ Akron	UNLV (75%)	10–38	0.29
✅	2026-09-26	South Carolina @ Alabama	Alabama (89%)	49–18	0.12
✅	2026-09-26	Tulsa @ Arkansas	Arkansas (62%)	34–6	0.48
✅	2026-09-26	Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State	Arkansas State (56%)	17–14	0.57
❌	2026-09-26	Vanderbilt @ Auburn	Vanderbilt (62%)	21–15	0.97
✅	2026-09-26	Colorado @ Baylor	Baylor (74%)	23–13	0.30
✅	2026-09-26	Virginia Tech @ Boston College	Virginia Tech (66%)	14–21	0.41
✅	2026-09-26	South Florida @ Bowling Green	South Florida (92%)	6–14	0.08
✅	2026-09-26	Robert Morris @ Buffalo	Buffalo (88%)	31–28	0.13
✅	2026-09-26	Louisiana @ Charlotte	Louisiana (79%)	7–34	0.24
❌	2026-09-26	Kansas State @ Cincinnati	Kansas State (53%)	31–26	0.77
✅	2026-09-26	William & Mary @ Duke	Duke (99%)	62–7	0.01
✅	2026-09-26	North Carolina Central @ East Carolina	East Carolina (97%)	42–9	0.03
✅	2026-09-26	Lindenwood @ Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan (86%)	29–3	0.15
❌	2026-09-26	Ole Miss @ Florida	Ole Miss (67%)	52–28	1.12
✅	2026-09-26	Long Island University @ Florida International	Florida International (91%)	20–3	0.09
✅	2026-09-26	Central Arkansas @ Florida State	Florida State (96%)	34–7	0.04
✅	2026-09-26	Rice @ Fresno State	Fresno State (80%)	38–24	0.22
✅	2026-09-26	Oklahoma @ Georgia	Georgia (65%)	41–13	0.44
✅	2026-09-26	Houston @ Georgia Southern	Houston (72%)	28–42	0.33
✅	2026-09-26	Northern Illinois @ Georgia State	Georgia State (78%)	35–14	0.25
✅	2026-09-26	Utah @ Iowa State	Utah (77%)	17–31	0.26
✅	2026-09-26	Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State (59%)	23–13	0.53
✅	2026-09-26	Ball State @ Kent State	Kent State (62%)	26–13	0.48
✅	2026-09-26	South Alabama @ Kentucky	Kentucky (76%)	45–21	0.28
✅	2026-09-26	Texas A&M @ LSU	LSU (60%)	35–6	0.51
❌	2026-09-26	Wake Forest @ Louisville	Louisville (78%)	27–30	1.51
✅	2026-09-26	Gardner-Webb @ Marshall	Marshall (95%)	36–35	0.05
✅	2026-09-26	UCLA @ Maryland	UCLA (64%)	3–54	0.44
✅	2026-09-26	Central Michigan @ Miami	Miami (95%)	52–3	0.05
❌	2026-09-26	UConn @ Miami (OH)	UConn (55%)	24–21	0.80
❌	2026-09-26	Iowa @ Michigan	Michigan (70%)	19–20	1.22
✅	2026-09-26	Nebraska @ Michigan State	Nebraska (55%)	13–31	0.59
❌	2026-09-26	Missouri @ Mississippi State	Missouri (50%)	31–24	0.70
✅	2026-09-26	App State @ NC State	NC State (77%)	41–31	0.26
✅	2026-09-26	Air Force @ Nevada	Air Force (55%)	33–36	0.60
✅	2026-09-26	New Mexico @ New Mexico State	New Mexico (79%)	18–42	0.24
✅	2026-09-26	Houston Christian @ North Texas	North Texas (97%)	63–14	0.03
✅	2026-09-26	Stonehill @ Ohio	Ohio (95%)	35–7	0.05
✅	2026-09-26	Illinois @ Ohio State	Ohio State (79%)	42–19	0.24
✅	2026-09-26	James Madison @ Old Dominion	James Madison (68%)	20–46	0.38
❌	2026-09-26	Wisconsin @ Penn State	Penn State (74%)	20–24	1.36
✅	2026-09-26	Bucknell @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh (98%)	59–0	0.02
✅	2026-09-26	Notre Dame @ Purdue	Notre Dame (89%)	10–49	0.12
✅	2026-09-26	Missouri State @ SMU	SMU (96%)	34–24	0.04
❌	2026-09-26	Massachusetts @ Sacramento State	Sacramento State (53%)	6–35	0.76
❌	2026-09-26	Georgia Tech @ Stanford	Georgia Tech (63%)	34–27	1.01
✅	2026-09-26	Texas @ Tennessee	Texas (61%)	17–20	0.49
✅	2026-09-26	Incarnate Word @ Texas State	Texas State (97%)	63–10	0.03
✅	2026-09-26	Sam Houston @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech (94%)	49–14	0.06
✅	2026-09-26	San Diego State @ Toledo	Toledo (65%)	41–16	0.43
✅	2026-09-26	Southern Miss @ Tulane	Tulane (91%)	24–21	0.09
❌	2026-09-26	TCU @ UCF	TCU (54%)	21–13	0.77
✅	2026-09-26	Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe	Florida Atlantic (74%)	17–45	0.30
❌	2026-09-26	Oregon @ USC	USC (62%)	27–41	0.98
✅	2026-09-26	Oregon State @ UTEP	Oregon State (65%)	7–33	0.44
✅	2026-09-26	Colorado State @ UTSA	UTSA (82%)	59–45	0.20
✅	2026-09-26	Troy @ Utah State	Utah State (50%)	21–10	0.69
✅	2026-09-26	Delaware @ Virginia	Virginia (87%)	42–3	0.14
❌	2026-09-26	Minnesota @ Washington	Washington (86%)	24–27	1.93
✅	2026-09-26	Arizona @ Washington State	Arizona (62%)	24–34	0.48
❌	2026-09-26	Oklahoma State @ West Virginia	West Virginia (77%)	24–41	1.48
✅	2026-09-26	Mercyhurst @ Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky (91%)	52–7	0.10
❌	2026-09-26	Boise State @ Western Michigan	Western Michigan (56%)	7–32	0.83
❌	2026-09-26	Hawai'i @ Wyoming	Hawai'i (68%)	27–10	1.13

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	James Madison	Sun Belt	4-0	11.0-1.0	100%	35%	84%	68%
2	Indiana	Big Ten	4-0	10.7-1.3	100%	27%	67%	47%
3	Notre Dame	Ind.	4-0	10.4-1.6	100%	18%	—	—
4	Texas Tech	Big 12	4-0	10.4-1.6	100%	19%	62%	33%
5	Miami	ACC	4-0	10.3-1.7	100%	16%	74%	53%
6	Georgia	SEC	4-0	10.2-1.8	100%	14%	58%	35%
7	Utah	Big 12	4-0	10.2-1.8	100%	15%	55%	33%
8	Texas	SEC	4-0	9.9-2.1	100%	11%	50%	27%
9	South Florida	American	4-0	9.6-2.4	100%	7%	39%	22%
10	Alabama	SEC	4-0	9.5-2.5	100%	7%	37%	18%
11	Iowa	Big Ten	4-0	9.5-2.5	100%	7%	29%	11%
12	Duke	ACC	4-0	9.3-2.7	99%	4%	27%	12%
13	BYU	Big 12	3-0	9.2-2.8	99%	4%	39%	19%
14	North Dakota State	MWC	4-0	9.2-2.8	100%	3%	48%	20%
15	Toledo	MAC	3-1	9.1-2.9	99%	<1%	51%	32%
16	New Mexico	MWC	3-1	9.0-3.0	99%	<1%	58%	36%
17	Oregon	Big Ten	3-1	8.8-3.2	99%	<1%	37%	16%
18	Pittsburgh	ACC	4-0	8.8-3.2	99%	2%	14%	5%
19	Ohio State	Big Ten	3-1	8.5-3.5	98%	<1%	28%	15%
20	SMU	ACC	3-1	8.5-3.5	98%	<1%	22%	8%
21	UCLA	Big Ten	4-0	8.5-3.5	99%	1%	11%	2%
22	Penn State	Big Ten	3-1	8.4-3.6	98%	<1%	6%	2%
23	Boise State	Pac-12	3-1	8.4-2.6	99%	<1%	70%	46%
24	Louisiana	Sun Belt	3-1	8.4-3.6	96%	<1%	29%	8%
25	Florida	SEC	4-0	8.3-3.7	97%	1%	14%	5%

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 53%, Duke 12%, SMU 8%, Clemson 6%
American Athletic	South Florida 22%, North Texas 15%, UTSA 14%, Tulane 14%
Big 12	Utah 33%, Texas Tech 33%, BYU 19%, Arizona State 3%
Big Ten	Indiana 47%, Oregon 16%, Ohio State 15%, Iowa 11%
Conference USA	Jacksonville State 25%, Liberty 22%, Delaware 14%, Florida International 12%
Mid-American	Toledo 32%, Ohio 21%, Western Michigan 21%, Miami (OH) 9%
Mountain West	New Mexico 36%, UNLV 31%, North Dakota State 20%, Air Force 4%
Pac-12	Boise State 46%, Fresno State 20%, Texas State 19%, Washington State 7%
SEC	Georgia 35%, Texas 27%, Alabama 18%, Florida 5%
Sun Belt	James Madison 68%, Louisiana 8%, Marshall 5%, Arkansas State 4%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 557 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb