College Football Update
Run date 2026-10-03 · week 5 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Pt diff | Elo |
|---|
| 1 | Indiana | Big Ten | 4-0 | +135 | 1948 |
| 2 | Georgia | SEC | 4-0 | +166 | 1893 |
| 3 | Texas | SEC | 4-0 | +80 | 1858 |
| 4 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 3-1 | +131 | 1856 |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 4-0 | +171 | 1834 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 4-0 | +136 | 1829 |
| 7 | Alabama | SEC | 4-0 | +111 | 1827 |
| 8 | Oregon | Big Ten | 3-1 | +97 | 1818 |
| 9 | Utah | Big 12 | 4-0 | +132 | 1790 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | SEC | 3-1 | +19 | 1772 |
| 11 | Iowa | Big Ten | 4-0 | +99 | 1770 |
| 12 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 4-0 | +71 | 1770 |
| 13 | BYU | Big 12 | 3-0 | +85 | 1739 |
| 14 | LSU | SEC | 3-1 | +93 | 1729 |
| 15 | Michigan | Big Ten | 3-1 | +42 | 1709 |
| 16 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-1 | +26 | 1707 |
| 17 | Duke | ACC | 4-0 | +101 | 1705 |
| 18 | Florida | SEC | 4-0 | +123 | 1705 |
| 19 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 4-0 | +130 | 1688 |
| 20 | Tennessee | SEC | 3-1 | +98 | 1688 |
| 21 | USC | Big Ten | 4-1 | +67 | 1685 |
| 22 | Oklahoma | SEC | 2-2 | +24 | 1677 |
| 23 | Washington | Big Ten | 3-1 | +45 | 1668 |
| 24 | Mississippi State | SEC | 4-0 | +88 | 1657 |
| 25 | SMU | ACC | 3-1 | +49 | 1656 |
Conferences by average Elo
| # | Conference | Teams | Avg | Top 4 | Median | Bottom 4 | In top 25 | Best team |
|---|
| 1 | SEC | 16 | 1689 | 1837 | 1682 | 1552 | 10 | Georgia (1893) |
| 2 | Big Ten | 18 | 1632 | 1848 | 1636 | 1403 | 7 | Indiana (1948) |
| 3 | FBS Independents | 2 | 1632 | — | 1632 | — | 1 | Notre Dame (1829) |
| 4 | Big 12 | 16 | 1575 | 1736 | 1570 | 1426 | 3 | Utah (1790) |
| 5 | ACC | 17 | 1542 | 1706 | 1543 | 1385 | 3 | Miami (1834) |
| 6 | Pac-12 | 8 | 1410 | 1505 | 1383 | 1315 | 0 | Boise State (1602) |
| 7 | American Athletic | 14 | 1410 | 1536 | 1472 | 1238 | 0 | South Florida (1562) |
| 8 | Sun Belt | 14 | 1359 | 1492 | 1358 | 1226 | 1 | James Madison (1688) |
| 9 | Mountain West | 10 | 1296 | 1424 | 1285 | 1175 | 0 | New Mexico (1497) |
| 10 | Mid-American | 13 | 1276 | 1427 | 1246 | 1146 | 0 | Toledo (1471) |
| 11 | Conference USA | 10 | 1271 | 1344 | 1263 | 1202 | 0 | Liberty (1414) |
One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.
📅 Games this week
2026-10-03 · 54 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Navy @ Air Force | Navy | 52% | 29.1–23.6 | 52.7 |
| Cincinnati @ Arizona | Arizona | 66% | 30.3–23.5 | 53.9 |
| Baylor @ Arizona State | Arizona State | 61% | 30.8–25.1 | 55.9 |
| Toledo @ Ball State | Toledo | 90% | 34.4–18.5 | 52.9 |
| Utah State @ Boise State | Boise State | 84% | 36.3–18.6 | 54.9 |
| Western Michigan @ Buffalo | Western Michigan | 70% | 28.6–20.5 | 49.1 |
| Akron @ Central Michigan | Central Michigan | 71% | 28.4–19.0 | 47.4 |
| Memphis @ Charlotte | Memphis | 88% | 37.0–20.0 | 57.1 |
| Miami @ Clemson | Miami | 82% | 29.5–20.6 | 50.0 |
| Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | 60% | 28.9–26.5 | 55.4 |
| Texas Tech @ Colorado | Texas Tech | 87% | 36.5–17.8 | 54.3 |
| Oregon State @ Colorado State | Colorado State | 53% | 27.9–25.8 | 53.7 |
| Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic (FCS) | Florida Atlantic | 95% | 43.3–15.6 | 58.9 |
| Virginia @ Florida State | Virginia | 61% | 28.5–22.4 | 50.9 |
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia | Georgia | 73% | 34.1–20.9 | 55.0 |
| Old Dominion @ Georgia State | Old Dominion | 57% | 29.6–25.5 | 55.1 |
| San José State @ Hawai'i | Hawai'i | 61% | 29.0–22.8 | 51.8 |
| UCF @ Houston | Houston | 74% | 30.5–22.3 | 52.9 |
| Purdue @ Illinois | Illinois | 83% | 36.0–19.7 | 55.7 |
| Ohio State @ Iowa | Ohio State | 75% | 22.5–20.6 | 43.1 |
| West Virginia @ Iowa State | Iowa State | 73% | 31.0–22.5 | 53.5 |
| Marshall @ James Madison | James Madison | 87% | 37.2–19.9 | 57.1 |
| Middle Tennessee @ Kansas | Kansas | 75% | 34.9–19.0 | 54.0 |
| Ohio @ Kent State | Ohio | 79% | 30.1–23.2 | 53.3 |
| McNeese @ LSU (FCS) | LSU | 99% | 51.0–4.7 | 55.7 |
| Arkansas State @ Louisiana | Louisiana | 72% | 29.7–23.9 | 53.6 |
| Army @ Louisiana Tech | Army | 59% | 26.6–22.1 | 48.7 |
| Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | Massachusetts | 62% | 27.1–24.0 | 51.1 |
| Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) | 76% | 30.9–15.7 | 46.6 |
| Michigan @ Minnesota | Michigan | 73% | 24.7–20.8 | 45.5 |
| Alabama @ Mississippi State | Alabama | 61% | 32.1–25.4 | 57.5 |
| Florida @ Missouri | Missouri | 55% | 26.4–26.4 | 52.8 |
| Louisville @ NC State | Louisville | 67% | 29.6–27.7 | 57.4 |
| Maryland @ Nebraska | Nebraska | 83% | 33.8–18.0 | 51.8 |
| UTEP @ New Mexico | New Mexico | 94% | 39.3–15.1 | 54.3 |
| Notre Dame @ North Carolina | Notre Dame | 92% | 35.4–16.4 | 51.8 |
| Wyoming @ North Dakota State | North Dakota State | 76% | 27.8–17.1 | 44.9 |
| UTSA @ Rice | UTSA | 73% | 35.7–23.3 | 59.0 |
| Indiana @ Rutgers | Indiana | 89% | 41.9–14.1 | 56.0 |
| Boston College @ SMU | SMU | 85% | 36.3–18.3 | 54.6 |
| Texas State @ San Diego State | Texas State | 57% | 30.5–25.5 | 56.0 |
| UL Monroe @ South Alabama | South Alabama | 83% | 36.6–19.8 | 56.4 |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | South Carolina | 52% | 24.7–26.4 | 51.1 |
| Temple @ South Florida | South Florida | 88% | 38.4–20.4 | 58.8 |
| BYU @ TCU | BYU | 66% | 29.5–22.7 | 52.3 |
| Auburn @ Tennessee | Tennessee | 66% | 31.3–22.9 | 54.2 |
| Arkansas @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M | 78% | 33.8–22.3 | 56.0 |
| Samford @ UAB (FCS) | UAB | 92% | 40.2–16.7 | 56.9 |
| Syracuse @ UConn | UConn | 65% | 32.9–24.1 | 57.1 |
| California @ UNLV | UNLV | 75% | 30.3–23.2 | 53.5 |
| Washington @ USC | USC | 51% | 29.7–25.9 | 55.5 |
| Stanford @ Wake Forest | Wake Forest | 79% | 31.4–22.9 | 54.3 |
| Fresno State @ Washington State | Fresno State | 63% | 25.1–22.5 | 47.6 |
| Michigan State @ Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 75% | 27.0–17.6 | 44.6 |
2026-10-06 · 1 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Southern Miss @ Troy | Troy | 73% | 29.8–20.8 | 50.6 |
2026-10-07 · 2 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| New Mexico State @ Florida International | Florida International | 74% | 30.1–22.0 | 52.1 |
| Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State | 56% | 26.7–24.6 | 51.3 |
2026-10-08 · 4 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| South Alabama @ Arkansas State | Arkansas State | 56% | 29.8–26.3 | 56.1 |
| Sam Houston @ Liberty | Liberty | 86% | 35.0–17.5 | 52.5 |
| South Florida @ UTSA | South Florida | 55% | 30.6–31.7 | 62.3 |
| Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 57% | 28.4–26.4 | 54.8 |
2026-10-09 · 5 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Iowa State @ BYU | BYU | 80% | 31.4–18.9 | 50.4 |
| Florida State @ Louisville | Louisville | 80% | 33.9–20.6 | 54.5 |
| Wyoming @ San José State | San José State | 62% | 23.7–22.0 | 45.7 |
| Washington State @ Utah State | Utah State | 65% | 25.6–26.8 | 52.4 |
| Iowa @ Washington | Washington | 55% | 21.4–24.1 | 45.5 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 53/70 | 75.7% | 0.4712 | -0.1963 ± 0.0502 |
| Last 30 days | 267/320 | 83.4% | 0.3739 | -0.2103 ± 0.0244 |
| Season to date | 267/320 | 83.4% | 0.3739 | -0.2103 ± 0.0244 |
| Season, FBS vs. FBS only | 160/207 | 77.3% | 0.4835 | -0.1535 ± 0.0321 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.
Past week: 53/70 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | UNLV @ Akron | UNLV (75%) | 10–38 | 0.29 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | South Carolina @ Alabama | Alabama (89%) | 49–18 | 0.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Tulsa @ Arkansas | Arkansas (62%) | 34–6 | 0.48 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State | Arkansas State (56%) | 17–14 | 0.57 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Vanderbilt @ Auburn | Vanderbilt (62%) | 21–15 | 0.97 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Colorado @ Baylor | Baylor (74%) | 23–13 | 0.30 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Virginia Tech @ Boston College | Virginia Tech (66%) | 14–21 | 0.41 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | South Florida @ Bowling Green | South Florida (92%) | 6–14 | 0.08 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Robert Morris @ Buffalo | Buffalo (88%) | 31–28 | 0.13 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Louisiana @ Charlotte | Louisiana (79%) | 7–34 | 0.24 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Kansas State @ Cincinnati | Kansas State (53%) | 31–26 | 0.77 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | William & Mary @ Duke | Duke (99%) | 62–7 | 0.01 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | North Carolina Central @ East Carolina | East Carolina (97%) | 42–9 | 0.03 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Lindenwood @ Eastern Michigan | Eastern Michigan (86%) | 29–3 | 0.15 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Ole Miss @ Florida | Ole Miss (67%) | 52–28 | 1.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Long Island University @ Florida International | Florida International (91%) | 20–3 | 0.09 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Central Arkansas @ Florida State | Florida State (96%) | 34–7 | 0.04 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Rice @ Fresno State | Fresno State (80%) | 38–24 | 0.22 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Oklahoma @ Georgia | Georgia (65%) | 41–13 | 0.44 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Houston @ Georgia Southern | Houston (72%) | 28–42 | 0.33 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Northern Illinois @ Georgia State | Georgia State (78%) | 35–14 | 0.25 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Utah @ Iowa State | Utah (77%) | 17–31 | 0.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State (59%) | 23–13 | 0.53 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Ball State @ Kent State | Kent State (62%) | 26–13 | 0.48 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | South Alabama @ Kentucky | Kentucky (76%) | 45–21 | 0.28 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Texas A&M @ LSU | LSU (60%) | 35–6 | 0.51 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Wake Forest @ Louisville | Louisville (78%) | 27–30 | 1.51 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Gardner-Webb @ Marshall | Marshall (95%) | 36–35 | 0.05 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | UCLA @ Maryland | UCLA (64%) | 3–54 | 0.44 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Central Michigan @ Miami | Miami (95%) | 52–3 | 0.05 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | UConn @ Miami (OH) | UConn (55%) | 24–21 | 0.80 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Iowa @ Michigan | Michigan (70%) | 19–20 | 1.22 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Nebraska @ Michigan State | Nebraska (55%) | 13–31 | 0.59 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Missouri @ Mississippi State | Missouri (50%) | 31–24 | 0.70 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | App State @ NC State | NC State (77%) | 41–31 | 0.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Air Force @ Nevada | Air Force (55%) | 33–36 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | New Mexico @ New Mexico State | New Mexico (79%) | 18–42 | 0.24 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Houston Christian @ North Texas | North Texas (97%) | 63–14 | 0.03 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Stonehill @ Ohio | Ohio (95%) | 35–7 | 0.05 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Illinois @ Ohio State | Ohio State (79%) | 42–19 | 0.24 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | James Madison @ Old Dominion | James Madison (68%) | 20–46 | 0.38 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Wisconsin @ Penn State | Penn State (74%) | 20–24 | 1.36 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Bucknell @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (98%) | 59–0 | 0.02 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Notre Dame @ Purdue | Notre Dame (89%) | 10–49 | 0.12 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Missouri State @ SMU | SMU (96%) | 34–24 | 0.04 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Massachusetts @ Sacramento State | Sacramento State (53%) | 6–35 | 0.76 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Georgia Tech @ Stanford | Georgia Tech (63%) | 34–27 | 1.01 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Texas @ Tennessee | Texas (61%) | 17–20 | 0.49 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Incarnate Word @ Texas State | Texas State (97%) | 63–10 | 0.03 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Sam Houston @ Texas Tech | Texas Tech (94%) | 49–14 | 0.06 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | San Diego State @ Toledo | Toledo (65%) | 41–16 | 0.43 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Southern Miss @ Tulane | Tulane (91%) | 24–21 | 0.09 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | TCU @ UCF | TCU (54%) | 21–13 | 0.77 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe | Florida Atlantic (74%) | 17–45 | 0.30 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Oregon @ USC | USC (62%) | 27–41 | 0.98 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Oregon State @ UTEP | Oregon State (65%) | 7–33 | 0.44 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Colorado State @ UTSA | UTSA (82%) | 59–45 | 0.20 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Troy @ Utah State | Utah State (50%) | 21–10 | 0.69 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Delaware @ Virginia | Virginia (87%) | 42–3 | 0.14 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Minnesota @ Washington | Washington (86%) | 24–27 | 1.93 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Arizona @ Washington State | Arizona (62%) | 24–34 | 0.48 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Oklahoma State @ West Virginia | West Virginia (77%) | 24–41 | 1.48 |
| ✅ | 2026-09-26 | Mercyhurst @ Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky (91%) | 52–7 | 0.10 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Boise State @ Western Michigan | Western Michigan (56%) | 7–32 | 0.83 |
| ❌ | 2026-09-26 | Hawai'i @ Wyoming | Hawai'i (68%) | 27–10 | 1.13 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State | New Mexico State (58%) | 34–13 | 0.55 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-01 | North Texas @ Tulsa | North Texas (69%) | 44–45 | 0.37 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-02 | Liberty @ Delaware | Liberty (65%) | 14–30 | 0.43 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-02 | Penn State @ Northwestern | Penn State (63%) | 34–13 | 1.00 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-02 | Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech | Pittsburgh (60%) | 33–35 | 0.52 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Projected wins — top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Proj W-L | Bowl | Undefeated | CCG | Conf title |
|---|
| 1 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 4-0 | 11.0-1.0 | 100% | 36% | 85% | 68% |
| 2 | Indiana | Big Ten | 4-0 | 10.7-1.3 | 100% | 28% | 68% | 47% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 4-0 | 10.5-1.5 | 100% | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 4-0 | 10.4-1.6 | 100% | 20% | 62% | 33% |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 4-0 | 10.3-1.7 | 100% | 16% | 73% | 53% |
| 6 | Georgia | SEC | 4-0 | 10.2-1.8 | 100% | 14% | 58% | 35% |
| 7 | Utah | Big 12 | 4-0 | 10.2-1.8 | 100% | 15% | 54% | 32% |
| 8 | Texas | SEC | 4-0 | 10.0-2.0 | 100% | 12% | 51% | 26% |
| 9 | Alabama | SEC | 4-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 100% | 7% | 38% | 18% |
| 10 | South Florida | American | 4-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 100% | 7% | 38% | 21% |
| 11 | Iowa | Big Ten | 4-0 | 9.5-2.5 | 100% | 6% | 28% | 11% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 5-0 | 9.4-2.6 | 100% | 3% | 25% | 9% |
| 13 | Duke | ACC | 4-0 | 9.3-2.7 | 100% | 4% | 25% | 12% |
| 14 | North Dakota State | MWC | 4-0 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | 3% | 48% | 22% |
| 15 | BYU | Big 12 | 3-0 | 9.1-2.9 | 99% | 4% | 38% | 19% |
| 16 | Toledo | MAC | 3-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 99% | <1% | 51% | 31% |
| 17 | Liberty | C-USA | 4-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 100% | <1% | 65% | 39% |
| 18 | New Mexico | MWC | 3-1 | 9.0-3.0 | 99% | <1% | 58% | 35% |
| 19 | Oregon | Big Ten | 3-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 99% | <1% | 38% | 17% |
| 20 | SMU | ACC | 3-1 | 8.5-3.5 | 98% | <1% | 21% | 8% |
| 21 | UCLA | Big Ten | 4-0 | 8.5-3.5 | 99% | 1% | 10% | 2% |
| 22 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 3-1 | 8.4-3.6 | 98% | <1% | 28% | 15% |
| 23 | Boise State | Pac-12 | 3-1 | 8.4-2.6 | 98% | <1% | 70% | 46% |
| 24 | Florida | SEC | 4-0 | 8.3-3.7 | 97% | 1% | 14% | 5% |
| 25 | Clemson | ACC | 3-1 | 8.3-3.7 | 98% | <1% | 16% | 6% |
Conference title races
| Conference | Favorites |
|---|
| ACC | Miami 53%, Duke 12%, Pittsburgh 9%, SMU 8% |
| American Athletic | South Florida 21%, North Texas 17%, Tulane 14%, UTSA 14% |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech 33%, Utah 32%, BYU 19%, Arizona State 3% |
| Big Ten | Indiana 47%, Oregon 17%, Ohio State 15%, Iowa 11% |
| Conference USA | Liberty 39%, Jacksonville State 25%, Florida International 11%, Kennesaw State 8% |
| Mid-American | Toledo 31%, Ohio 21%, Western Michigan 21%, Miami (OH) 10% |
| Mountain West | New Mexico 35%, UNLV 30%, North Dakota State 22%, Air Force 4% |
| Pac-12 | Boise State 46%, Fresno State 20%, Texas State 19%, Washington State 7% |
| SEC | Georgia 35%, Texas 26%, Alabama 18%, Florida 5% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison 68%, Louisiana 8%, Marshall 5%, Arkansas State 4% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 552 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.
Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb