College Football Update
Run date 2026-10-11 · week 7 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.
🏆 Elo top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Pt diff | Elo |
|---|
| 1 | Indiana | Big Ten | 6-0 | +170 | 1962 |
| 2 | Georgia | SEC | 6-0 | +193 | 1938 |
| 3 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 5-1 | +177 | 1904 |
| 4 | Miami | ACC | 5-0 | +199 | 1866 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 6-0 | +198 | 1846 |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 5-1 | +141 | 1842 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | SEC | 4-1 | +54 | 1827 |
| 8 | Texas | SEC | 4-1 | +77 | 1822 |
| 9 | Utah | Big 12 | 5-0 | +149 | 1798 |
| 10 | Oregon | Big Ten | 3-2 | +95 | 1787 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 5-0 | +93 | 1782 |
| 12 | BYU | Big 12 | 5-0 | +106 | 1780 |
| 13 | Iowa | Big Ten | 5-1 | +99 | 1771 |
| 14 | Missouri | SEC | 5-1 | +109 | 1751 |
| 15 | USC | Big Ten | 6-1 | +79 | 1743 |
| 16 | Tennessee | SEC | 5-1 | +115 | 1727 |
| 17 | LSU | SEC | 4-2 | +141 | 1716 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | SEC | 3-2 | +27 | 1713 |
| 19 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 6-0 | +161 | 1710 |
| 20 | Arizona | Big 12 | 5-1 | +100 | 1708 |
| 21 | Houston | Big 12 | 5-1 | +125 | 1688 |
| 22 | Duke | ACC | 4-1 | +98 | 1668 |
| 23 | Michigan | Big Ten | 3-2 | +36 | 1668 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | ACC | 5-1 | +92 | 1666 |
| 25 | SMU | ACC | 4-1 | +58 | 1665 |
Conferences by average Elo
| # | Conference | Teams | Avg | Top 4 | Median | Bottom 4 | In top 25 | Best team |
|---|
| 1 | SEC | 16 | 1689 | 1857 | 1672 | 1543 | 8 | Georgia (1938) |
| 2 | FBS Independents | 2 | 1653 | — | 1653 | — | 1 | Notre Dame (1846) |
| 3 | Big Ten | 18 | 1632 | 1856 | 1623 | 1423 | 6 | Indiana (1962) |
| 4 | Big 12 | 16 | 1578 | 1767 | 1552 | 1420 | 5 | Utah (1798) |
| 5 | ACC | 17 | 1541 | 1716 | 1511 | 1385 | 4 | Miami (1866) |
| 6 | Pac-12 | 8 | 1410 | 1516 | 1387 | 1304 | 0 | Boise State (1650) |
| 7 | American Athletic | 14 | 1403 | 1528 | 1468 | 1223 | 0 | UTSA (1565) |
| 8 | Sun Belt | 14 | 1360 | 1487 | 1372 | 1225 | 1 | James Madison (1710) |
| 9 | Mountain West | 10 | 1301 | 1455 | 1261 | 1167 | 0 | UNLV (1513) |
| 10 | Mid-American | 13 | 1275 | 1419 | 1313 | 1128 | 0 | Western Michigan (1476) |
| 11 | Conference USA | 10 | 1269 | 1359 | 1273 | 1177 | 0 | Liberty (1429) |
One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.
📅 Games this week
2026-10-13 · 2 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Florida International @ Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State | 60% | 27.8–23.1 | 50.9 |
| Delaware @ Middle Tennessee | Delaware | 51% | 27.9–25.3 | 53.2 |
2026-10-14 · 2 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Kennesaw State @ Missouri State | Kennesaw State | 62% | 26.6–25.7 | 52.3 |
| Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston | Sam Houston | 56% | 23.3–28.5 | 51.9 |
2026-10-15 · 3 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion | Old Dominion | 61% | 28.1–23.9 | 52.0 |
| Colorado State @ Texas State | Texas State | 84% | 40.4–22.8 | 63.2 |
| East Carolina @ UAB | East Carolina | 56% | 31.8–23.4 | 55.2 |
2026-10-16 · 3 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| App State @ Coastal Carolina | App State | 54% | 26.6–27.4 | 54.0 |
| Washington @ Purdue | Washington | 63% | 28.3–25.7 | 54.0 |
| Memphis @ Tulane | Memphis | 62% | 25.6–28.0 | 53.6 |
2026-10-17 · 52 games
| Matchup (home in bold) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. score (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|
| UNLV @ Air Force | Air Force | 54% | 23.7–27.5 | 51.2 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Army | Army | 71% | 31.0–22.8 | 53.8 |
| Notre Dame @ BYU | Notre Dame | 69% | 26.1–25.3 | 51.3 |
| TCU @ Baylor | Baylor | 61% | 30.7–23.9 | 54.6 |
| Pittsburgh @ Boston College | Pittsburgh | 75% | 30.6–22.3 | 52.9 |
| Ball State @ Bowling Green | Bowling Green | 66% | 28.8–20.0 | 48.9 |
| Massachusetts @ Buffalo | Buffalo | 55% | 30.8–19.5 | 50.3 |
| Wake Forest @ California | Wake Forest | 81% | 32.9–21.4 | 54.3 |
| Western Michigan @ Central Michigan | Western Michigan | 50% | 26.0–20.1 | 46.0 |
| Charleston Southern @ Clemson (FCS) | Clemson | 98% | 46.7–8.0 | 54.8 |
| Utah @ Colorado | Utah | 87% | 37.6–16.6 | 54.2 |
| North Carolina @ Duke | Duke | 78% | 33.2–19.5 | 52.7 |
| Toledo @ Eastern Michigan | Toledo | 74% | 26.6–24.5 | 51.0 |
| Auburn @ Georgia | Georgia | 88% | 37.0–13.4 | 50.4 |
| New Mexico @ Hawai'i | New Mexico | 78% | 31.4–20.2 | 51.6 |
| Oklahoma State @ Houston | Houston | 80% | 34.7–19.7 | 54.4 |
| Ohio State @ Indiana | Indiana | 56% | 26.6–20.5 | 47.1 |
| Georgia State @ James Madison | James Madison | 88% | 39.8–18.2 | 57.9 |
| Kansas @ Kansas State | Kansas State | 65% | 32.7–23.4 | 56.2 |
| Mississippi State @ LSU | LSU | 71% | 33.4–25.0 | 58.3 |
| Troy @ Louisiana | Louisiana | 69% | 28.5–23.2 | 51.6 |
| Rutgers @ Maryland | Maryland | 54% | 29.8–27.3 | 57.1 |
| Florida State @ Miami | Miami | 91% | 38.3–14.3 | 52.6 |
| Akron @ Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) | 75% | 30.3–18.1 | 48.4 |
| Penn State @ Michigan | Michigan | 68% | 26.6–19.8 | 46.4 |
| Northwestern @ Michigan State | Northwestern | 71% | 29.0–18.8 | 47.8 |
| Nevada @ North Dakota State | North Dakota State | 83% | 29.7–17.2 | 46.9 |
| Kentucky @ Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 71% | 28.2–20.7 | 48.8 |
| Missouri @ Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 57% | 30.6–23.4 | 54.0 |
| Nebraska @ Oregon | Oregon | 64% | 32.0–21.2 | 53.2 |
| Washington State @ Oregon State | Oregon State | 81% | 28.8–22.1 | 50.9 |
| Tulsa @ Rice | Rice | 54% | 26.7–25.8 | 52.5 |
| Virginia @ SMU | SMU | 74% | 31.3–21.0 | 52.4 |
| Ohio @ Sacramento State | Ohio | 70% | 34.5–14.9 | 49.3 |
| Fresno State @ San Diego State | Fresno State | 65% | 28.3–20.0 | 48.3 |
| Kent State @ South Florida | South Florida | 93% | 36.5–18.8 | 55.4 |
| Arkansas State @ Southern Miss | Arkansas State | 53% | 29.7–27.2 | 56.9 |
| Elon @ Stanford (FCS) | Stanford | 95% | 41.3–12.1 | 53.4 |
| Louisville @ Syracuse | Louisville | 77% | 35.8–21.9 | 57.7 |
| Charlotte @ Temple | Temple | 85% | 34.3–19.7 | 54.0 |
| Alabama @ Tennessee | Alabama | 73% | 29.2–25.7 | 54.9 |
| Florida @ Texas | Texas | 84% | 35.3–18.3 | 53.6 |
| The Citadel @ Texas A&M (FCS) | Texas A&M | 99% | 48.7–7.9 | 56.6 |
| Arizona State @ Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 85% | 35.8–18.3 | 54.1 |
| Wisconsin @ UCLA | UCLA | 67% | 26.1–19.7 | 45.9 |
| Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe | Louisiana Tech | 71% | 34.6–20.6 | 55.2 |
| San José State @ UTEP | San José State | 81% | 29.9–22.3 | 52.2 |
| Navy @ UTSA | UTSA | 63% | 32.9–23.6 | 56.6 |
| Arkansas @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | 83% | 35.1–22.0 | 57.1 |
| Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | 61% | 28.5–25.8 | 54.4 |
| Cincinnati @ West Virginia | Cincinnati | 65% | 30.9–27.6 | 58.4 |
| Northern Illinois @ Wyoming | Wyoming | 66% | 26.2–14.8 | 41.0 |
Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.
📈 Model performance
Rolling tracker
| Window | Correct | Accuracy | Log loss | ΔLL vs always-home |
|---|
| Last 7 days | 36/58 | 62.1% | 0.6095 | -0.0958 ± 0.0592 |
| Last 30 days | 266/348 | 76.4% | 0.4560 | -0.1805 ± 0.0238 |
| Season to date | 341/432 | 78.9% | 0.4226 | -0.1910 ± 0.0213 |
| Season, FBS vs. FBS only | 231/316 | 73.1% | 0.5153 | -0.1448 ± 0.0260 |
ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.
Past week: 36/58 picks correct
| Date | Game | Pick | Final (home first) | Log loss |
|---|
| ✅ | 2026-10-06 | Southern Miss @ Troy | Troy (74%) | 55–34 | 0.30 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-07 | New Mexico State @ Florida International | Florida International (73%) | 22–3 | 0.32 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-07 | Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | Jacksonville State (57%) | 26–27 | 0.55 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-08 | South Alabama @ Arkansas State | Arkansas State (56%) | 49–56 | 0.83 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-08 | Sam Houston @ Liberty | Liberty (87%) | 35–3 | 0.14 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-08 | South Florida @ UTSA | South Florida (51%) | 31–24 | 0.72 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-08 | Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky (56%) | 34–13 | 0.57 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-09 | Iowa State @ BYU | BYU (82%) | 24–10 | 0.20 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-09 | Florida State @ Louisville | Louisville (69%) | 44–20 | 0.38 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-09 | Wyoming @ San José State | San José State (69%) | 13–16 | 1.18 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-09 | Washington State @ Utah State | Utah State (66%) | 17–16 | 0.41 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-09 | Iowa @ Washington | Washington (55%) | 24–41 | 0.81 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Eastern Michigan @ Akron | Eastern Michigan (61%) | 23–25 | 0.50 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Georgia @ Alabama | Alabama (63%) | 17–20 | 0.99 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Old Dominion @ App State | App State (55%) | 3–10 | 0.80 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Hawai'i @ Arizona State | Arizona State (83%) | 30–12 | 0.18 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Tennessee @ Arkansas | Tennessee (71%) | 17–24 | 0.35 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Tulane @ Army | Army (57%) | 20–17 | 0.56 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Sacramento State @ Bowling Green | Bowling Green (54%) | 38–10 | 0.62 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Virginia Tech @ California | Virginia Tech (70%) | 25–20 | 1.20 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Rice @ East Carolina | East Carolina (85%) | 28–12 | 0.17 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | South Carolina @ Florida | Florida (66%) | 19–38 | 1.08 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Boise State @ Fresno State | Boise State (61%) | 31–38 | 0.50 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | James Madison @ Georgia Southern | James Madison (79%) | 24–27 | 0.24 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Duke @ Georgia Tech | Duke (72%) | 28–25 | 1.28 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Houston @ Kansas State | Kansas State (57%) | 16–35 | 0.84 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | LSU @ Kentucky | LSU (63%) | 35–34 | 1.01 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech | Louisiana (56%) | 32–31 | 0.83 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Coastal Carolina @ Marshall | Marshall (79%) | 21–27 | 1.56 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts | Massachusetts (51%) | 19–20 | 0.71 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | UAB @ Memphis | Memphis (81%) | 38–13 | 0.21 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Illinois @ Michigan State | Illinois (55%) | 37–38 | 0.60 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Texas A&M @ Missouri | Missouri (65%) | 27–6 | 0.43 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Wake Forest @ NC State | Wake Forest (64%) | 14–38 | 0.44 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Tulsa @ Navy | Navy (76%) | 34–26 | 0.27 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Indiana @ Nebraska | Indiana (63%) | 17–20 | 0.47 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Charlotte @ North Texas | North Texas (95%) | 50–10 | 0.05 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Air Force @ Northern Illinois | Air Force (74%) | 7–28 | 0.30 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Ball State @ Northwestern | Northwestern (98%) | 45–14 | 0.02 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Stanford @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame (97%) | 58–7 | 0.03 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Central Michigan @ Ohio | Ohio (68%) | 31–14 | 0.38 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Maryland @ Ohio State | Ohio State (97%) | 45–16 | 0.03 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Texas vs. Oklahoma (N) | Texas (53%) | 27–24 | 0.76 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | UCF @ Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State (55%) | 42–28 | 0.60 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | UCLA @ Oregon | Oregon (72%) | 15–17 | 1.29 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | San Diego State @ Oregon State | Oregon State (71%) | 66–14 | 0.34 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | USC @ Penn State | Penn State (57%) | 23–31 | 0.85 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (80%) | 17–21 | 1.59 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Minnesota @ Purdue | Minnesota (57%) | 41–13 | 0.85 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | UConn @ Temple | Temple (55%) | 20–34 | 0.80 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Buffalo @ Toledo | Toledo (94%) | 8–23 | 2.88 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | North Dakota State @ UNLV | UNLV (58%) | 13–7 | 0.54 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Nevada @ UTEP | Nevada (75%) | 13–30 | 0.28 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Kansas @ Utah | Utah (86%) | 41–24 | 0.15 |
| ❌ | 2026-10-10 | Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt (52%) | 17–52 | 0.73 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Syracuse @ Virginia | Virginia (77%) | 28–25 | 0.26 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Arizona @ West Virginia | Arizona (80%) | 31–52 | 0.23 |
| ✅ | 2026-10-10 | Kent State @ Western Michigan | Western Michigan (87%) | 38–7 | 0.14 |
🔮 Season forecasts
Projected wins — top 25
| # | Team | Conf | W-L | Proj W-L | Bowl | Undefeated | CCG | Conf title |
|---|
| 1 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 6-0 | 11.3-0.7 | 100% | 49% | 94% | 77% |
| 2 | Indiana | Big Ten | 6-0 | 11.0-1.0 | 100% | 35% | 74% | 52% |
| 3 | Georgia | SEC | 6-0 | 11.0-1.0 | 100% | 32% | 86% | 55% |
| 4 | Miami | ACC | 5-0 | 10.8-1.2 | 100% | 25% | 93% | 69% |
| 5 | Notre Dame | Ind. | 6-0 | 10.6-1.4 | 100% | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 5-0 | 10.5-1.5 | 100% | 21% | 58% | 29% |
| 7 | Utah | Big 12 | 5-0 | 10.2-1.8 | 100% | 15% | 46% | 26% |
| 8 | BYU | Big 12 | 5-0 | 10.0-2.0 | 100% | 10% | 57% | 30% |
| 9 | Alabama | SEC | 5-1 | 9.6-2.4 | 100% | <1% | 37% | 15% |
| 10 | UCLA | Big Ten | 5-0 | 9.6-2.4 | 100% | 6% | 29% | 6% |
| 11 | Iowa | Big Ten | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 100% | <1% | 20% | 7% |
| 12 | Liberty | C-USA | 5-1 | 9.4-2.6 | 100% | <1% | 72% | 42% |
| 13 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 5-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 43% | 25% |
| 14 | Wake Forest | ACC | 5-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 26% | 8% |
| 15 | Boise State | Pac-12 | 5-1 | 9.2-1.8 | 100% | <1% | 92% | 66% |
| 16 | UTSA | American | 5-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 50% | 28% |
| 17 | North Dakota State | MWC | 5-1 | 9.2-2.8 | 100% | <1% | 41% | 16% |
| 18 | Houston | Big 12 | 5-1 | 9.1-2.9 | 100% | <1% | 13% | 5% |
| 19 | New Mexico | MWC | 4-1 | 9.0-3.0 | 99% | <1% | 55% | 32% |
| 20 | Texas | SEC | 4-1 | 8.9-3.1 | 100% | <1% | 21% | 9% |
| 21 | Ole Miss | SEC | 4-1 | 8.8-3.2 | 100% | <1% | 18% | 8% |
| 22 | Arizona | Big 12 | 5-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 100% | <1% | 10% | 4% |
| 23 | SMU | ACC | 4-1 | 8.7-3.3 | 99% | <1% | 38% | 11% |
| 24 | Ohio | MAC | 4-2 | 8.7-3.3 | 100% | <1% | 70% | 39% |
| 25 | USC | Big Ten | 6-1 | 8.6-3.4 | 100% | <1% | 7% | 3% |
Conference title races
| Conference | Favorites |
|---|
| ACC | Miami 69%, SMU 11%, Wake Forest 8%, Duke 4% |
| American Athletic | UTSA 28%, North Texas 20%, East Carolina 16%, Memphis 13% |
| Big 12 | BYU 30%, Texas Tech 29%, Utah 26%, Houston 5% |
| Big Ten | Indiana 52%, Ohio State 25%, Iowa 7%, UCLA 6% |
| Conference USA | Liberty 42%, Jacksonville State 29%, Florida International 15%, Western Kentucky 4% |
| Mid-American | Ohio 39%, Western Michigan 34%, Toledo 7%, Eastern Michigan 6% |
| Mountain West | UNLV 40%, New Mexico 32%, North Dakota State 16%, Air Force 8% |
| Pac-12 | Boise State 66%, Fresno State 15%, Oregon State 9%, Texas State 7% |
| SEC | Georgia 55%, Alabama 15%, Texas 9%, Ole Miss 8% |
| Sun Belt | James Madison 77%, South Alabama 6%, Louisiana Tech 5%, Louisiana 4% |
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 440 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.
Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb