College Football Update

Run date 2026-10-30 · week 9 · the Elo board, the next 7 days of games, the past week's grades, and rest-of-season forecasts.

🏆 Elo top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Pt diff	Elo
1	Indiana	Big Ten	7-1	+173	1942
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	+181	1941
3	Georgia	SEC	6-1	+190	1893
4	Miami	ACC	7-0	+236	1880
5	Ole Miss	SEC	5-2	+75	1824
6	Utah	Big 12	7-0	+160	1823
7	Texas	SEC	5-2	+81	1821
8	Notre Dame	Ind.	6-1	+194	1816
9	Alabama	SEC	6-2	+136	1802
10	LSU	SEC	6-2	+193	1789
11	Tennessee	SEC	6-2	+128	1752
12	BYU	Big 12	6-1	+102	1743
13	Arizona	Big 12	6-1	+136	1736
14	Iowa	Big Ten	5-2	+96	1736
15	Oregon	Big Ten	4-3	+87	1732
16	Texas Tech	Big 12	6-1	+108	1722
17	Missouri	SEC	5-2	+81	1714
18	Kentucky	SEC	7-1	+65	1709
19	UCLA	Big Ten	7-0	+134	1703
20	SMU	ACC	6-1	+107	1698
21	Oklahoma	SEC	4-3	+27	1696
22	Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	+126	1692
23	Northwestern	Big Ten	6-1	+127	1678
24	USC	Big Ten	6-2	+62	1676
25	Houston	Big 12	6-2	+120	1675

Conferences by average Elo

#	Conference	Teams	Avg	Top 4	Median	Bottom 4	In top 25	Best team
1	SEC	16	1689	1835	1702	1543	9	Georgia (1893)
2	FBS Independents	2	1643	—	1643	—	1	Notre Dame (1816)
3	Big Ten	18	1632	1838	1640	1404	7	Indiana (1942)
4	Big 12	16	1579	1756	1546	1441	5	Utah (1823)
5	ACC	17	1541	1730	1499	1388	3	Miami (1880)
6	Pac-12	8	1410	1526	1389	1294	0	Boise State (1666)
7	American Athletic	14	1404	1565	1407	1218	0	UTSA (1638)
8	Sun Belt	14	1360	1482	1378	1231	0	James Madison (1633)
9	Mountain West	10	1301	1450	1316	1146	0	New Mexico (1543)
10	Mid-American	13	1273	1451	1258	1109	0	Ohio (1496)
11	Conference USA	10	1269	1384	1263	1156	0	Liberty (1464)

One Elo scale across all of FBS; Top 4 / Median / Bottom 4 are each conference's ceiling, middle and floor next to its average.

📅 Games this week

2026-10-30 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Tulane @ Charlotte	Tulane	80%	34.3–18.4	52.8
Kent State @ Sacramento State	Kent State	63%	29.0–20.2	49.1
Baylor @ UCF	UCF	57%	27.7–27.0	54.7

2026-10-31 · 47 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
UConn @ Air Force	Air Force	63%	26.3–28.3	54.6
Missouri @ Arkansas	Missouri	68%	30.4–22.2	52.5
Arizona State @ BYU	BYU	83%	33.5–19.9	53.3
Texas State @ Boise State	Boise State	78%	35.9–23.8	59.8
Utah @ Cincinnati	Utah	74%	33.0–22.5	55.5
Kansas State @ Colorado	Kansas State	63%	31.5–23.1	54.6
Boston College @ Duke	Duke	75%	32.5–21.2	53.7
Temple @ East Carolina	East Carolina	69%	33.8–21.1	54.8
Clemson @ Florida State	Florida State	57%	24.6–25.9	50.5
Oregon State @ Fresno State	Fresno State	50%	28.0–23.4	51.4
Florida vs. Georgia (N)	Georgia	85%	35.3–19.3	54.6
App State @ Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern	69%	29.7–24.9	54.6
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State	Georgia State	71%	32.7–25.0	57.7
Minnesota @ Indiana	Indiana	94%	34.8–11.7	46.4
Wisconsin @ Iowa	Iowa	64%	24.4–16.3	40.7
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State	Iowa State	50%	29.3–24.4	53.8
Florida International @ Liberty	Liberty	78%	31.4–18.9	50.3
Stanford @ Louisville	Louisville	89%	35.2–21.3	56.5
Illinois @ Maryland	Illinois	68%	33.2–21.2	54.5
Army @ Memphis	Memphis	63%	27.3–27.0	54.3
California @ NC State	NC State	77%	32.8–23.4	56.2
Notre Dame vs. Navy (N)	Notre Dame	90%	39.4–16.3	55.7
Washington @ Nebraska	Nebraska	62%	26.4–23.7	50.1
Miami @ North Carolina	Miami	87%	35.6–17.3	52.8
UTEP @ North Dakota State	North Dakota State	93%	36.6–12.7	49.3
South Carolina @ Oklahoma	Oklahoma	67%	27.3–20.4	47.7
Marshall @ Old Dominion	Marshall	51%	26.2–24.3	50.6
Auburn @ Ole Miss	Ole Miss	83%	35.2–18.3	53.5
Northwestern @ Oregon	Oregon	65%	27.8–21.9	49.8
Purdue @ Penn State	Penn State	74%	31.5–22.0	53.5
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	76%	33.4–23.2	56.6
Michigan @ Rutgers	Michigan	80%	30.6–19.5	50.1
Washington State @ San Diego State	San Diego State	62%	27.0–24.1	51.0
New Mexico @ San José State	New Mexico	81%	32.4–17.8	50.3
Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama	Louisiana Tech	60%	28.6–27.1	55.7
UAB @ South Florida	South Florida	76%	33.4–23.2	56.7
SMU @ Syracuse	SMU	80%	37.1–20.2	57.3
Kansas @ TCU	TCU	65%	31.0–21.3	52.2
Mississippi State @ Texas	Texas	82%	36.7–18.6	55.3
Arizona @ Texas Tech	Texas Tech	62%	27.9–25.7	53.6
Nevada @ UCLA	UCLA	94%	37.7–10.7	48.3
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	Southern Miss	60%	27.9–26.0	53.9
Northern Illinois @ UNLV	UNLV	92%	38.8–12.9	51.7
Ohio State @ USC	Ohio State	75%	31.7–19.9	51.6
Colorado State @ Utah State	Utah State	64%	33.0–25.5	58.5
Virginia @ Wake Forest	Wake Forest	84%	32.6–18.6	51.2
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan	Western Michigan	89%	33.0–14.7	47.7

2026-11-03 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Ohio @ Akron	Ohio	83%	34.5–15.7	50.2
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	Miami (OH)	60%	25.7–22.3	48.0

2026-11-04 · 3 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan (N)	Central Michigan	53%	24.4–23.2	47.6
Ball State @ Massachusetts	Massachusetts	61%	26.4–25.0	51.3
Toledo @ Sacramento State	Toledo	93%	37.6–14.9	52.5

2026-11-05 · 2 games

Matchup (home in bold)	Pick	Win prob	Exp. score (winner first)	Exp. total
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic	UTSA	74%	39.6–27.1	66.6
James Madison @ Southern Miss	James Madison	82%	38.8–19.1	57.9

Win probability straight from Elo (home edge applied except at neutral sites, marked N). Expected score is the Elo-implied margin carved out of a matchup-specific total (each program's recent points for/against, shrunk to the FBS mean); read it as an average, not a literal final. FCS opponents are one pooled rating, so those lines are the least informative on the slate.

📈 Model performance

Rolling tracker

Window	Correct	Accuracy	Log loss	ΔLL vs always-home
Last 7 days	34/55	61.8%	0.6932	+0.0475 ± 0.0656
Last 30 days	157/241	65.1%	0.6168	-0.0674 ± 0.0314
Season to date	420/556	75.5%	0.4774	-0.1484 ± 0.0197
Season, FBS vs. FBS only	307/437	70.2%	0.5621	-0.1017 ± 0.0229

ΔLL is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast on the same games (p = 0.632, coin flip at neutral sites), ± one standard error; negative = beating the baseline. Hit rate is inflated by FBS-vs-FCS games, which is why the FBS-only row exists.

Past week: 34/55 picks correct

	Date	Game	Pick	Final (home first)	Log loss
❌	2026-10-23	NC State @ Stanford	NC State (61%)	31–28	0.93
✅	2026-10-23	Army @ Tulsa	Army (63%)	35–38	0.46
✅	2026-10-23	Massachusetts @ UConn	UConn (79%)	35–16	0.23
✅	2026-10-23	Duke @ Virginia	Duke (57%)	16–19	0.56
❌	2026-10-23	Air Force @ Wyoming	Air Force (72%)	28–14	1.27
✅	2026-10-24	Texas A&M @ Alabama	Alabama (77%)	31–20	0.26
✅	2026-10-24	Iowa State @ Arizona	Arizona (79%)	39–3	0.23
❌	2026-10-24	Kansas State @ Arizona State	Kansas State (60%)	28–17	0.90
✅	2026-10-24	Georgia State @ Arkansas State	Arkansas State (53%)	38–32	0.63
✅	2026-10-24	LSU @ Auburn	LSU (68%)	17–38	0.39
✅	2026-10-24	Sacramento State @ Ball State	Ball State (64%)	34–17	0.44
✅	2026-10-24	Bowling Green @ Buffalo	Buffalo (68%)	31–24	0.38
❌	2026-10-24	Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan	Central Michigan (58%)	27–28	0.87
❌	2026-10-24	Texas Tech @ Cincinnati	Texas Tech (69%)	37–24	1.19
❌	2026-10-24	Virginia Tech @ Clemson	Clemson (69%)	16–20	1.18
❌	2026-10-24	San Diego State @ Colorado State	San Diego State (55%)	56–49	0.79
✅	2026-10-24	Rice @ Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic (74%)	51–49	0.30
❌	2026-10-24	Boston College @ Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech (62%)	27–49	0.97
❌	2026-10-24	Oregon @ Illinois	Oregon (74%)	21–10	1.34
✅	2026-10-24	Baylor @ Kansas	Kansas (52%)	25–24	0.66
✅	2026-10-24	Akron @ Kent State	Kent State (50%)	35–20	0.68
✅	2026-10-24	Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	Kentucky (75%)	34–17	0.29
✅	2026-10-24	Old Dominion @ Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech (65%)	26–0	0.43
✅	2026-10-24	Pittsburgh @ Miami	Miami (92%)	52–23	0.08
✅	2026-10-24	Indiana @ Michigan	Indiana (66%)	6–13	0.41
❌	2026-10-24	Iowa @ Minnesota	Iowa (72%)	13–10	1.27
✅	2026-10-24	Oklahoma @ Mississippi State	Oklahoma (59%)	15–23	0.53
❌	2026-10-24	North Texas @ Navy	Navy (51%)	39–49	0.71
✅	2026-10-24	San José State @ Nevada	Nevada (57%)	28–13	0.57
✅	2026-10-24	North Dakota State @ New Mexico	New Mexico (69%)	21–16	0.37
❌	2026-10-24	Syracuse @ North Carolina	North Carolina (81%)	30–31	1.65
✅	2026-10-24	Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois	Hawai'i (60%)	21–56	0.51
✅	2026-10-24	Rutgers @ Northwestern	Northwestern (86%)	42–14	0.16
✅	2026-10-24	Eastern Michigan @ Ohio	Ohio (82%)	24–20	0.20
✅	2026-10-24	Colorado @ Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State (69%)	57–24	0.37
✅	2026-10-24	California @ SMU	SMU (87%)	59–20	0.14
❌	2026-10-24	Tennessee @ South Carolina	Tennessee (57%)	27–24	0.85
❌	2026-10-24	Louisiana @ Southern Miss	Louisiana (74%)	35–31	1.34
❌	2026-10-24	West Virginia @ TCU	TCU (74%)	20–24	1.36
✅	2026-10-24	Ole Miss @ Texas	Texas (53%)	34–27	0.64
✅	2026-10-24	Utah State @ Texas State	Texas State (80%)	20–17	0.22
✅	2026-10-24	Western Michigan @ Toledo	Toledo (61%)	45–38	0.49
❌	2026-10-24	UL Monroe @ Troy	Troy (85%)	14–21	1.89
✅	2026-10-24	UTSA @ Tulane	UTSA (56%)	19–42	0.58
❌	2026-10-24	BYU @ UCF	BYU (81%)	39–31	1.64
✅	2026-10-24	Michigan State @ UCLA	UCLA (86%)	28–10	0.15
✅	2026-10-24	Houston @ Utah	Utah (71%)	21–13	0.34
✅	2026-10-24	Boise State @ Washington State	Boise State (85%)	10–31	0.17
❌	2026-10-24	USC @ Wisconsin	USC (51%)	24–7	0.72
✅	2026-10-27	Sam Houston @ Missouri State	Missouri State (66%)	24–3	0.42
❌	2026-10-27	Delaware @ Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky (62%)	21–35	0.97
❌	2026-10-28	Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee (55%)	28–44	0.81
✅	2026-10-28	Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State	Jacksonville State (57%)	0–24	0.56
❌	2026-10-29	Troy @ James Madison	James Madison (91%)	21–24	2.44
✅	2026-10-29	Florida Atlantic @ North Texas	North Texas (84%)	48–41	0.17

🔮 Season forecasts

Projected wins — top 25

#	Team	Conf	W-L	Proj W-L	Bowl	Undefeated	CCG	Conf title
1	Miami	ACC	7-0	11.0-1.0	100%	32%	97%	71%
2	Utah	Big 12	7-0	10.6-1.4	100%	22%	74%	47%
3	Indiana	Big Ten	7-1	10.5-1.5	100%	<1%	57%	34%
4	UCLA	Big Ten	7-0	10.3-1.7	100%	14%	46%	11%
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	10.1-1.9	100%	<1%	78%	50%
6	UTSA	American	7-1	10.1-1.9	100%	<1%	77%	47%
7	Liberty	C-USA	6-1	10.0-2.0	100%	<1%	92%	51%
8	Georgia	SEC	6-1	9.9-2.1	100%	<1%	63%	41%
9	Notre Dame	Ind.	6-1	9.9-2.1	100%	<1%	—	—
10	New Mexico	MWC	6-1	9.8-2.2	100%	<1%	78%	52%
11	Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	9.7-2.3	100%	<1%	39%	12%
12	BYU	Big 12	6-1	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	33%	17%
13	Texas Tech	Big 12	6-1	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	40%	16%
14	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-2	9.5-2.5	100%	<1%	51%	37%
15	Boise State	Pac-12	6-1	9.4-1.6	100%	<1%	96%	70%
16	Arizona	Big 12	6-1	9.2-2.8	100%	<1%	27%	13%
17	Kentucky	SEC	7-1	9.2-2.8	100%	<1%	42%	13%
18	SMU	ACC	6-1	9.2-2.8	100%	<1%	50%	14%
19	Alabama	SEC	6-2	9.1-2.9	100%	<1%	24%	11%
20	Toledo	MAC	6-2	9.1-2.9	100%	<1%	40%	22%
21	North Dakota State	MWC	6-2	9.1-2.9	100%	<1%	42%	15%
22	Ohio	MAC	6-2	9.0-3.0	100%	<1%	75%	43%
23	Jacksonville State	C-USA	6-2	9.0-3.0	100%	<1%	92%	43%
24	Houston	Big 12	6-2	8.9-3.1	100%	<1%	13%	4%
25	Ole Miss	SEC	5-2	8.8-3.2	100%	<1%	19%	11%

Conference title races

Conference	Favorites
ACC	Miami 71%, SMU 14%, Wake Forest 12%, Louisville 2%
American Athletic	UTSA 47%, North Texas 26%, Army 19%, Memphis 6%
Big 12	Utah 47%, BYU 17%, Texas Tech 16%, Arizona 13%
Big Ten	Ohio State 50%, Indiana 34%, UCLA 11%, Wisconsin 2%
Conference USA	Liberty 51%, Jacksonville State 43%, Delaware 3%, Western Kentucky 1%
Mid-American	Ohio 43%, Western Michigan 24%, Toledo 22%, Buffalo 7%
Mountain West	New Mexico 52%, UNLV 18%, North Dakota State 15%, Wyoming 9%
Pac-12	Boise State 70%, Oregon State 14%, Texas State 10%, Fresno State 4%
SEC	Georgia 41%, Kentucky 13%, Alabama 11%, Ole Miss 11%
Sun Belt	James Madison 37%, Louisiana Tech 27%, Georgia Southern 10%, App State 7%

Rest-of-season Monte Carlo (10,000 replays of the 316 remaining regular-season games with live in-sim Elo). Bowl = 6+ wins; CCG = reaching the conference championship game (top two by conference record, ties random); the title game is simulated at a neutral site. The 12-team playoff is a committee pick and is not modeled.

Betting-blind FBS Elo (conference-aware season regression, pooled FCS opponent, margin-weighted updates) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/cfb