MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-07
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 53%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 68-46 | +41 | 1522 | 93.2 | 53% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 63-51 | +77 | 1547 | 90.6 | 24% | 98% |
| Yankees | 64-51 | +81 | 1536 | 90.4 | 22% | 99% |
| Orioles | 56-59 | -33 | 1493 | 78.6 | <1% | 16% |
| Blue Jays | 54-62 | -61 | 1491 | 76.2 | <1% | 6% |
AL Central — White Sox 46%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 59-55 | +38 | 1495 | 83.2 | 46% | 61% |
| Tigers | 56-59 | +80 | 1521 | 81.5 | 28% | 44% |
| Guardians | 57-59 | -28 | 1494 | 80.3 | 17% | 31% |
| Twins | 57-59 | -35 | 1481 | 78.6 | 9% | 16% |
| Royals | 48-68 | -103 | 1466 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 52%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 59-57 | -25 | 1502 | 82.6 | 52% | 61% |
| Rangers | 57-58 | -33 | 1492 | 80.9 | 29% | 41% |
| Mariners | 56-60 | -14 | 1498 | 79.3 | 19% | 27% |
| Athletics | 45-70 | -157 | 1436 | 64.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 44-71 | -76 | 1447 | 64.1 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 94%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 70-46 | +116 | 1538 | 95.4 | 94% | 100% |
| Phillies | 62-54 | +2 | 1523 | 86.4 | 6% | 70% |
| Marlins | 58-58 | +0 | 1493 | 80.1 | <1% | 13% |
| Mets | 50-66 | -46 | 1487 | 71.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 56-61 | +10 | 1476 | 77.5 | <1% | 3% |
NL Central — Brewers 85%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 72-43 | +141 | 1564 | 98.8 | 85% | 100% |
| Cubs | 67-49 | +100 | 1547 | 92.6 | 15% | 98% |
| Cardinals | 57-58 | -10 | 1489 | 79.8 | <1% | 10% |
| Reds | 56-58 | -60 | 1486 | 77.4 | <1% | 3% |
| Pirates | 57-60 | +24 | 1496 | 78.9 | <1% | 6% |
NL West — Dodgers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 69-46 | +140 | 1552 | 96.3 | 98% | 100% |
| Padres | 60-56 | -13 | 1514 | 84.0 | 1% | 45% |
| Diamondbacks | 61-55 | +3 | 1510 | 84.6 | 1% | 51% |
| Rockies | 45-70 | -108 | 1421 | 62.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 49-67 | -51 | 1482 | 71.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (53%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (54%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb