Predictions for every game on 2026-08-07 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Sim score (winner first) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Roki Sasaki vs. Merrill Kelly | Dodgers | 53% | 6–3 |
| Athletics @ Red Sox | Jack Perkins vs. Payton Tolle | Red Sox | 68% | 7–3 |
| Guardians @ White Sox | Parker Messick vs. Noah Schultz | White Sox | 54% | 6–3 |
| Cubs @ Royals | TBD vs. Daniel Lynch IV | Cubs | 58% | 7–3 |
| Angels @ Marlins | George Klassen vs. Tyler Phillips | Marlins | 60% | 7–3 |
| Twins @ Brewers | Zebby Matthews vs. Shane Drohan | Brewers | 65% | 7–3 |
| Braves @ Yankees | Tyler Mahle vs. Max Fried | Yankees | 53% | 6–3 |
| Blue Jays @ Phillies | José Soriano vs. Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 58% | 6–3 |
| Mets @ Pirates | Zac Thornton vs. Carmen Mlodzinski | Pirates | 55% | 6–3 |
| Astros @ Padres | Ronel Blanco vs. Robbie Ray | Padres | 55% | 6–3 |
| Rays @ Mariners | Drew Rasmussen vs. Logan Gilbert | Mariners | 50% | 6–3 |
| Tigers @ Giants | Keider Montero vs. TBD | Tigers | 52% | 6–3 |
| Rockies @ Cardinals | Ryan Feltner vs. Kyle Leahy | Cardinals | 63% | 7–3 |
| Orioles @ Rangers | Shane Baz vs. Nathan Eovaldi | Rangers | 53% | 6–3 |
| Reds @ Nationals | TBD vs. Cade Cavalli | Nationals | 52% | 6–3 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Score is the rounded mean of 10,000 simulated scores, conditioned on the picked side winning — reported over the modal scoreline because baseball's modal scores are degenerate (3–2 regardless of matchup); the conditional mean tracks team strength and always agrees with the pick.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb