MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-08
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 55%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 69-46 | +42 | 1523 | 93.9 | 55% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 64-51 | +89 | 1549 | 91.0 | 22% | 98% |
| Yankees | 65-51 | +82 | 1537 | 91.0 | 22% | 99% |
| Orioles | 56-60 | -34 | 1492 | 78.0 | <1% | 12% |
| Blue Jays | 55-62 | -60 | 1492 | 76.9 | <1% | 7% |
AL Central — White Sox 39%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 59-56 | +32 | 1492 | 82.4 | 39% | 53% |
| Guardians | 58-59 | -22 | 1497 | 81.2 | 25% | 40% |
| Tigers | 56-60 | +77 | 1519 | 80.8 | 23% | 35% |
| Twins | 58-59 | -33 | 1483 | 79.5 | 14% | 24% |
| Royals | 48-69 | -105 | 1465 | 68.6 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 56%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 60-57 | -22 | 1504 | 83.3 | 56% | 67% |
| Rangers | 58-58 | -32 | 1493 | 81.5 | 32% | 46% |
| Mariners | 56-61 | -15 | 1497 | 78.8 | 12% | 19% |
| Athletics | 45-71 | -169 | 1434 | 64.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 45-71 | -75 | 1448 | 64.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 95%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 70-47 | +115 | 1536 | 94.8 | 95% | 100% |
| Phillies | 62-55 | +1 | 1522 | 85.5 | 5% | 64% |
| Marlins | 58-59 | -1 | 1492 | 79.4 | <1% | 10% |
| Mets | 51-66 | -44 | 1489 | 72.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 57-61 | +12 | 1478 | 78.1 | <1% | 4% |
NL Central — Brewers 82%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 72-44 | +139 | 1562 | 98.1 | 82% | 100% |
| Cubs | 68-49 | +102 | 1549 | 93.2 | 18% | 99% |
| Reds | 56-59 | -62 | 1485 | 76.9 | <1% | 3% |
| Pirates | 57-61 | +22 | 1494 | 78.3 | <1% | 5% |
| Cardinals | 58-58 | -9 | 1489 | 80.4 | <1% | 15% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 69-47 | +139 | 1551 | 95.7 | 97% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 62-55 | +4 | 1511 | 85.3 | 3% | 62% |
| Padres | 60-57 | -16 | 1512 | 83.4 | 1% | 39% |
| Rockies | 45-71 | -109 | 1420 | 62.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 50-67 | -48 | 1484 | 71.8 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (55%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (51%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb