How the 2026-08-07 predictions scored against actual results
6/15 correct (40%) · log-loss 0.711 · Brier 0.259 · avg margin error 4.5 · avg total-runs error 2.6
Running record: 6/15 (40.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.711 · cumulative Brier 0.259
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Dodgers (53%) | 6–3 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Athletics @ Red Sox | Red Sox (68%) | 7–3 | 13–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Guardians @ White Sox | White Sox (54%) | 6–3 | 2–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cubs @ Royals | Cubs (58%) | 7–3 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Angels @ Marlins | Marlins (60%) | 7–3 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Twins @ Brewers | Brewers (65%) | 7–3 | 6–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Braves @ Yankees | Yankees (53%) | 6–3 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Blue Jays @ Phillies | Phillies (58%) | 6–3 | 4–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Pirates | Pirates (55%) | 6–3 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Padres | Padres (55%) | 6–3 | 3–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Mariners | Mariners (50%) | 6–3 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Tigers @ Giants | Tigers (52%) | 6–3 | 5–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Cardinals | Cardinals (63%) | 7–3 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Rangers | Rangers (53%) | 6–3 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Reds @ Nationals | Nationals (52%) | 6–3 | 5–3 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb