Predictions for every game on 2026-08-08 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Sim score (winner first) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Brandon Pfaadt | Dodgers | 52% | 6–3 |
| Athletics @ Red Sox | Gage Jump vs. Jake Bennett | Red Sox | 69% | 7–3 |
| Guardians @ White Sox | Gavin Williams vs. Anthony Kay | White Sox | 53% | 6–3 |
| Cubs @ Royals | Clay Holmes vs. Seth Lugo | Cubs | 59% | 7–3 |
| Angels @ Marlins | Walbert Ureña vs. Sandy Alcantara | Marlins | 60% | 7–3 |
| Twins @ Brewers | Taj Bradley vs. Robert Gasser | Brewers | 64% | 7–3 |
| Braves @ Yankees | Chris Sale vs. Gerrit Cole | Yankees | 53% | 6–3 |
| Blue Jays @ Phillies | Max Scherzer vs. Aaron Nola | Phillies | 58% | 6–3 |
| Mets @ Pirates | Robert Stock vs. Bubba Chandler | Pirates | 54% | 6–3 |
| Astros @ Padres | Peter Lambert vs. Michael King | Padres | 54% | 6–3 |
| Rays @ Mariners | Griffin Jax vs. George Kirby | Rays | 50% | 6–3 |
| Tigers @ Giants | Jackson Jobe vs. Landen Roupp | Tigers | 52% | 6–3 |
| Rockies @ Cardinals | Kyle Freeland vs. Matthew Liberatore | Cardinals | 63% | 7–3 |
| Orioles @ Rangers | Kyle Bradish vs. Jacob deGrom | Rangers | 54% | 6–3 |
| Reds @ Nationals | Chase Burns vs. Andrew Alvarez | Nationals | 52% | 6–3 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Score is the rounded mean of 10,000 simulated scores, conditioned on the picked side winning — reported over the modal scoreline because baseball's modal scores are degenerate (3–2 regardless of matchup); the conditional mean tracks team strength and always agrees with the pick.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb