MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-09
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 61%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 70-46 | +43 | 1524 | 94.5 | 61% | 100% |
| Yankees | 66-51 | +83 | 1538 | 91.5 | 24% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 64-52 | +85 | 1546 | 90.1 | 15% | 98% |
| Orioles | 56-61 | -38 | 1490 | 77.3 | <1% | 8% |
| Blue Jays | 56-62 | -58 | 1494 | 77.6 | <1% | 11% |
AL Central — White Sox 46%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 60-56 | +35 | 1494 | 83.2 | 46% | 61% |
| Tigers | 57-60 | +85 | 1522 | 81.6 | 26% | 42% |
| Guardians | 58-60 | -25 | 1496 | 80.5 | 18% | 32% |
| Twins | 58-60 | -34 | 1482 | 79.0 | 10% | 18% |
| Royals | 49-69 | -102 | 1467 | 69.3 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 51%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 60-58 | -23 | 1504 | 82.9 | 51% | 64% |
| Rangers | 59-58 | -28 | 1496 | 81.9 | 38% | 52% |
| Mariners | 56-62 | -16 | 1496 | 78.2 | 10% | 15% |
| Athletics | 46-71 | -165 | 1438 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 45-72 | -82 | 1445 | 64.3 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 95%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 70-48 | +114 | 1536 | 94.2 | 95% | 100% |
| Phillies | 62-56 | -1 | 1520 | 84.8 | 5% | 58% |
| Marlins | 59-59 | +6 | 1494 | 80.1 | <1% | 13% |
| Nationals | 58-61 | +18 | 1481 | 78.6 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 51-67 | -53 | 1486 | 71.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 87%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 73-44 | +140 | 1562 | 98.4 | 87% | 100% |
| Cubs | 68-50 | +99 | 1546 | 92.5 | 13% | 99% |
| Reds | 56-60 | -68 | 1482 | 76.2 | <1% | 2% |
| Pirates | 58-61 | +31 | 1497 | 78.9 | <1% | 7% |
| Cardinals | 58-59 | -11 | 1487 | 79.5 | <1% | 11% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 70-47 | +140 | 1552 | 96.2 | 99% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 62-56 | +3 | 1510 | 84.8 | 1% | 58% |
| Padres | 61-57 | -15 | 1512 | 83.9 | <1% | 47% |
| Rockies | 46-71 | -107 | 1422 | 63.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 50-68 | -56 | 1481 | 71.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (61%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (56%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb