How the 2026-08-08 predictions scored against actual results
11/15 correct (73%) · log-loss 0.708 · Brier 0.257 · avg margin error 3.7 · avg total-runs error 2.2
Running record: 17/30 (56.7%) · cumulative log-loss 0.709 · cumulative Brier 0.258
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Dodgers (52%) | 6–3 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Red Sox | Red Sox (69%) | 7–3 | 3–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ White Sox | White Sox (53%) | 6–3 | 6–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cubs @ Royals | Cubs (59%) | 7–3 | 6–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Angels @ Marlins | Marlins (60%) | 7–3 | 7–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Brewers | Brewers (64%) | 7–3 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Braves @ Yankees | Yankees (53%) | 6–3 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Blue Jays @ Phillies | Phillies (58%) | 6–3 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mets @ Pirates | Pirates (54%) | 6–3 | 9–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Astros @ Padres | Padres (54%) | 6–3 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Mariners | Rays (50%) | 6–3 | 2–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Giants | Tigers (52%) | 6–3 | 0–8 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rockies @ Cardinals | Cardinals (63%) | 7–3 | 6–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Rangers | Rangers (54%) | 6–3 | 5–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Reds @ Nationals | Nationals (52%) | 6–3 | 8–2 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb