Predictions for every game on 2026-08-09 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Sim score (winner first) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Justin Wrobleski vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | Dodgers | 53% | 6–3 |
| Athletics @ Red Sox | J.T. Ginn vs. TBD | Red Sox | 68% | 7–3 |
| Guardians @ White Sox | Joey Cantillo vs. Davis Martin | White Sox | 53% | 6–3 |
| Cubs @ Royals | Matthew Boyd vs. Randy Dobnak | Cubs | 58% | 7–3 |
| Angels @ Marlins | Grayson Rodriguez vs. Ryan Gusto | Marlins | 60% | 7–3 |
| Twins @ Brewers | Connor Prielipp vs. Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers | 65% | 7–3 |
| Braves @ Yankees | Grant Holmes vs. Cam Schlittler | Yankees | 54% | 6–3 |
| Blue Jays @ Phillies | Shane Bieber vs. Jesús Luzardo | Phillies | 57% | 6–3 |
| Mets @ Pirates | Sean Manaea vs. Jared Jones | Pirates | 55% | 6–3 |
| Astros @ Padres | Cristian Javier vs. TBD | Padres | 55% | 6–3 |
| Rays @ Mariners | TBD vs. Emerson Hancock | Rays | 51% | 6–3 |
| Tigers @ Giants | Troy Melton vs. Logan Webb | Tigers | 53% | 6–3 |
| Rockies @ Cardinals | Michael Lorenzen vs. Michael McGreevy | Cardinals | 63% | 7–3 |
| Orioles @ Rangers | Cade Povich vs. Kumar Rocker | Rangers | 54% | 6–3 |
| Reds @ Nationals | Brady Singer vs. Brad Lord | Nationals | 53% | 6–3 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Score is the rounded mean of 10,000 simulated scores, conditioned on the picked side winning — reported over the modal scoreline because baseball's modal scores are degenerate (3–2 regardless of matchup); the conditional mean tracks team strength and always agrees with the pick.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb