MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-10
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 72%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 71-46 | +46 | 1526 | 95.1 | 72% | 100% |
| Yankees | 66-52 | +82 | 1536 | 90.8 | 18% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 64-53 | +84 | 1545 | 89.2 | 10% | 97% |
| Orioles | 57-61 | -33 | 1493 | 78.1 | <1% | 11% |
| Blue Jays | 56-63 | -59 | 1494 | 77.1 | <1% | 8% |
AL Central — White Sox 50%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 61-56 | +37 | 1496 | 83.7 | 50% | 68% |
| Tigers | 58-60 | +87 | 1524 | 82.1 | 30% | 50% |
| Guardians | 58-61 | -27 | 1494 | 80.1 | 13% | 28% |
| Twins | 58-61 | -35 | 1482 | 78.7 | 7% | 16% |
| Royals | 49-70 | -110 | 1465 | 68.7 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 53%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 60-59 | -28 | 1501 | 82.2 | 53% | 61% |
| Rangers | 59-59 | -33 | 1493 | 81.1 | 36% | 47% |
| Mariners | 56-63 | -19 | 1494 | 77.7 | 11% | 15% |
| Athletics | 47-71 | -164 | 1439 | 65.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 45-73 | -91 | 1443 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 95%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 71-48 | +115 | 1537 | 94.9 | 95% | 100% |
| Phillies | 63-56 | +0 | 1521 | 85.3 | 4% | 57% |
| Marlins | 60-59 | +15 | 1497 | 80.7 | <1% | 14% |
| Mets | 52-67 | -43 | 1490 | 72.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 59-61 | +24 | 1484 | 79.2 | <1% | 7% |
NL Central — Brewers 85%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 74-44 | +141 | 1563 | 98.9 | 85% | 100% |
| Cubs | 69-50 | +107 | 1549 | 93.0 | 15% | 99% |
| Reds | 56-61 | -74 | 1479 | 75.7 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 58-62 | +21 | 1493 | 78.0 | <1% | 3% |
| Cardinals | 59-59 | -8 | 1489 | 80.0 | <1% | 10% |
NL West — Dodgers 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 70-48 | +138 | 1550 | 95.7 | 96% | 100% |
| Padres | 62-57 | -10 | 1515 | 84.6 | 2% | 51% |
| Diamondbacks | 63-56 | +5 | 1512 | 85.3 | 2% | 58% |
| Rockies | 46-72 | -110 | 1420 | 62.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 50-69 | -58 | 1479 | 70.9 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (71%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (60%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb