How the 2026-08-09 predictions scored against actual results
10/15 correct (67%) · log-loss 0.663 · Brier 0.235 · avg margin error 3.8 · avg total-runs error 3.1
Running record: 27/45 (60.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.694 · cumulative Brier 0.250
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Dodgers @ Diamondbacks | Dodgers (53%) | 6–3 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Red Sox | Red Sox (68%) | 7–3 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ White Sox | White Sox (53%) | 6–3 | 5–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cubs @ Royals | Cubs (58%) | 7–3 | 2–10 (home first) |
| ✅ | Angels @ Marlins | Marlins (60%) | 7–3 | 12–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Brewers | Brewers (65%) | 7–3 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Braves @ Yankees | Yankees (54%) | 6–3 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Blue Jays @ Phillies | Phillies (57%) | 6–3 | 7–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Pirates | Pirates (55%) | 6–3 | 1–11 (home first) |
| ✅ | Astros @ Padres | Padres (55%) | 6–3 | 7–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Mariners | Rays (51%) | 6–3 | 1–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Giants | Tigers (53%) | 6–3 | 1–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rockies @ Cardinals | Cardinals (63%) | 7–3 | 7–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Rangers | Rangers (54%) | 6–3 | 5–10 (home first) |
| ✅ | Reds @ Nationals | Nationals (53%) | 6–3 | 7–1 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb