Predictions for every game on 2026-08-10 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Gabriel Hughes vs. Michael Soroka | Diamondbacks | 66% | 5.6–4.1 | 9.7 |
| Rays @ Athletics | Freddy Peralta vs. Jacob Lopez | Rays | 59% | 5.2–3.9 | 9.1 |
| Mets @ Braves | Christian Scott vs. Bryce Elder | Braves | 60% | 4.9–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Rangers @ Angels | MacKenzie Gore vs. Reid Detmers | Rangers | 54% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.7 |
| Royals @ Dodgers | Noah Cameron vs. Tarik Skubal | Dodgers | 65% | 5.2–3.8 | 9.0 |
| Orioles @ Twins | Trevor Rogers vs. Dean Kremer | Twins | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Brewers @ Padres | Logan Henderson vs. Casey Mize | Brewers | 53% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Astros @ Giants | Hayden Wesneski vs. Blade Tidwell | Giants | 50% | 4.7–4.6 | 8.9 |
| Phillies @ Cardinals | Andrew Painter vs. Hunter Dobbins | Phillies | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Sonny Gray vs. Jameson Taillon | Red Sox | 54% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.7 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it — so hot offenses and pitcher's duels get different totals while the pick and win probability stay pure Elo. Expected runs are shown at one decimal (integer rounding collapses nearly every game onto 6–3); read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb