MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-11
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 77%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 72-46 | +50 | 1528 | 95.5 | 77% | 100% |
| Yankees | 66-52 | +82 | 1536 | 90.8 | 17% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 64-54 | +83 | 1544 | 88.7 | 6% | 97% |
| Orioles | 57-62 | -37 | 1490 | 77.6 | <1% | 8% |
| Blue Jays | 57-63 | -58 | 1495 | 77.6 | <1% | 8% |
AL Central — White Sox 46%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 61-56 | +37 | 1496 | 83.5 | 46% | 62% |
| Tigers | 58-60 | +87 | 1524 | 82.2 | 31% | 50% |
| Guardians | 58-61 | -27 | 1494 | 80.2 | 13% | 27% |
| Twins | 59-61 | -31 | 1484 | 79.5 | 10% | 21% |
| Royals | 49-71 | -111 | 1464 | 68.2 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 53%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 61-59 | -25 | 1503 | 82.8 | 53% | 64% |
| Rangers | 60-59 | -30 | 1494 | 81.8 | 39% | 52% |
| Mariners | 56-63 | -19 | 1494 | 77.7 | 8% | 12% |
| Athletics | 47-72 | -168 | 1437 | 65.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 45-74 | -94 | 1441 | 63.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 92%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 71-49 | +112 | 1534 | 94.0 | 92% | 99% |
| Phillies | 64-56 | +1 | 1522 | 85.9 | 8% | 62% |
| Marlins | 60-59 | +15 | 1497 | 80.6 | <1% | 12% |
| Nationals | 59-61 | +24 | 1484 | 79.1 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 53-67 | -40 | 1492 | 73.1 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 86%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 74-45 | +140 | 1562 | 98.4 | 86% | 100% |
| Cubs | 69-50 | +107 | 1549 | 92.8 | 14% | 98% |
| Reds | 56-61 | -74 | 1479 | 75.7 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 58-62 | +21 | 1493 | 78.1 | <1% | 3% |
| Cardinals | 59-60 | -9 | 1488 | 79.5 | <1% | 7% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 71-48 | +139 | 1551 | 96.1 | 97% | 100% |
| Diamondbacks | 64-56 | +14 | 1514 | 85.9 | 2% | 61% |
| Padres | 63-57 | -9 | 1516 | 85.0 | 1% | 51% |
| Rockies | 46-73 | -119 | 1418 | 62.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 50-70 | -61 | 1477 | 70.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (76%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (56%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb