How the 2026-08-10 predictions scored against actual results
6/10 correct (60%) · log-loss 0.648 · Brier 0.228 · avg margin error 2.8 · avg total-runs error 3.4
Running record: 33/55 (60.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.686 · cumulative Brier 0.246
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (66%) | 5.6–4.1 | 9–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Athletics | Rays (59%) | 5.2–3.9 | 6–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ Braves | Braves (60%) | 4.9–4 | 5–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rangers @ Angels | Rangers (54%) | 4.7–4 | 1–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Dodgers | Dodgers (65%) | 5.2–3.8 | 6–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Twins | Twins (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 9–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Padres | Brewers (53%) | 4.7–4.1 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Giants | Giants (50%) | 4.7–4.6 | 3–6 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Cardinals | Phillies (51%) | 4.6–4.2 | 5–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Red Sox (54%) | 4.7–4 | 2–1 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb