Predictions for every game on 2026-08-11 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Mitch Bratt | Diamondbacks | 67% | 5.6–4.1 | 9.7 |
| Rays @ Athletics | Nick Martinez vs. Mason Barnett | Rays | 60% | 5.3–3.9 | 9.2 |
| Mets @ Braves | Nolan McLean vs. Martín Pérez | Braves | 59% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Reds @ White Sox | Nick Lodolo vs. Sean Burke | White Sox | 56% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Guardians @ Tigers | Tanner Bibee vs. Drew Anderson | Tigers | 58% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Rangers @ Angels | Cody Bradford vs. Ryan Johnson | Rangers | 54% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.6 |
| Royals @ Dodgers | Michael Wacha vs. Blake Snell | Dodgers | 65% | 5.3–3.8 | 9.1 |
| Pirates @ Marlins | Paul Skenes vs. Eury Pérez | Marlins | 54% | 4.6–4.4 | 9.0 |
| Orioles @ Twins | Brandon Young vs. Bailey Ober | Twins | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Mariners @ Yankees | Bryan Woo vs. Ryan Weathers | Yankees | 59% | 4.5–3.7 | 8.1 |
| Brewers @ Padres | Kyle Harrison vs. Walker Buehler | Brewers | 53% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Astros @ Giants | Hunter Brown vs. TBD | Astros | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Phillies @ Cardinals | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Andre Pallante | Phillies | 51% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Patrick Sandoval vs. Dylan Cease | Red Sox | 54% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Cubs @ Nationals | Shota Imanaga vs. TBD | Cubs | 56% | 5.2–4.3 | 9.4 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it — so hot offenses and pitcher's duels get different totals while the pick and win probability stay pure Elo. Expected runs are shown at one decimal (integer rounding collapses nearly every game onto 6–3); read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb