MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-12
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 79%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 73-46 | +58 | 1530 | 96.0 | 79% | 100% |
| Yankees | 67-52 | +85 | 1538 | 91.3 | 18% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 64-55 | +81 | 1542 | 88.0 | 3% | 95% |
| Blue Jays | 58-63 | -56 | 1496 | 78.3 | <1% | 12% |
| Orioles | 58-62 | -34 | 1493 | 78.2 | <1% | 14% |
AL Central — White Sox 42%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 61-57 | +36 | 1494 | 83.1 | 42% | 60% |
| Tigers | 59-60 | +89 | 1525 | 82.7 | 38% | 57% |
| Guardians | 58-62 | -29 | 1493 | 79.6 | 12% | 23% |
| Twins | 59-62 | -34 | 1482 | 78.7 | 8% | 17% |
| Royals | 49-72 | -112 | 1463 | 67.8 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 54%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 61-60 | -28 | 1501 | 82.3 | 54% | 63% |
| Rangers | 60-60 | -31 | 1493 | 81.2 | 37% | 48% |
| Mariners | 56-64 | -22 | 1492 | 77.2 | 9% | 12% |
| Athletics | 47-73 | -176 | 1434 | 64.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 46-74 | -93 | 1442 | 64.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 72-49 | +116 | 1536 | 94.5 | 96% | 100% |
| Phillies | 64-57 | -1 | 1520 | 85.3 | 4% | 56% |
| Marlins | 61-59 | +17 | 1498 | 81.2 | <1% | 15% |
| Mets | 53-68 | -44 | 1491 | 72.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 59-62 | +22 | 1482 | 78.6 | <1% | 4% |
NL Central — Brewers 79%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 74-46 | +131 | 1558 | 97.6 | 79% | 100% |
| Cubs | 70-50 | +109 | 1550 | 93.4 | 21% | 99% |
| Reds | 57-61 | -73 | 1480 | 76.4 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 58-63 | +19 | 1492 | 77.6 | <1% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 60-60 | -7 | 1490 | 80.1 | <1% | 9% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 72-48 | +140 | 1551 | 96.4 | 97% | 100% |
| Padres | 64-57 | +0 | 1520 | 85.7 | 2% | 61% |
| Diamondbacks | 64-57 | +13 | 1512 | 85.1 | 1% | 53% |
| Rockies | 47-73 | -118 | 1420 | 62.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 51-70 | -58 | 1479 | 70.7 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (78%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (47%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb