How the 2026-08-11 predictions scored against actual results
7/15 correct (47%) · log-loss 0.674 · Brier 0.241 · avg margin error 2.9 · avg total-runs error 3.6
Running record: 40/70 (57.1%) · cumulative log-loss 0.683 · cumulative Brier 0.245
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (67%) | 5.6–4.1 | 2–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Athletics | Rays (60%) | 5.3–3.9 | 4–12 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mets @ Braves | Braves (59%) | 4.9–4.1 | 4–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Reds @ White Sox | White Sox (56%) | 4.6–4.3 | 4–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Tigers | Tigers (58%) | 4.7–4.1 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rangers @ Angels | Rangers (54%) | 4.7–3.9 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Dodgers | Dodgers (65%) | 5.3–3.8 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Marlins | Marlins (54%) | 4.6–4.4 | 2–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Twins | Twins (53%) | 4.6–4.5 | 2–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mariners @ Yankees | Yankees (59%) | 4.5–3.7 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Padres | Brewers (53%) | 4.7–4.1 | 11–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Giants | Astros (50%) | 4.6–4.3 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Phillies @ Cardinals | Phillies (51%) | 4.7–4.2 | 2–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Red Sox (54%) | 4.6–4 | 5–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cubs @ Nationals | Cubs (56%) | 5.2–4.3 | 6–8 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb