Predictions for every game on 2026-08-12 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Ryan Feltner vs. Merrill Kelly | Diamondbacks | 66% | 5.5–4.0 | 9.5 |
| Rays @ Athletics | Drew Rasmussen vs. Jack Perkins | Rays | 60% | 5.4–4.0 | 9.4 |
| Mets @ Braves | Zac Thornton vs. Tyler Mahle | Braves | 60% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Reds @ White Sox | Rhett Lowder vs. Luis Castillo | White Sox | 55% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Guardians @ Tigers | Foster Griffin vs. Framber Valdez | Tigers | 58% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Rangers @ Angels | Cal Quantrill vs. George Klassen | Rangers | 54% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 |
| Royals @ Dodgers | Daniel Lynch IV vs. Eric Lauer | Dodgers | 66% | 5.3–3.8 | 9.1 |
| Pirates @ Marlins | Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Janson Junk | Marlins | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Orioles @ Twins | Shane Baz vs. Zebby Matthews | Twins | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Mariners @ Yankees | Bryce Miller vs. Will Warren | Yankees | 60% | 4.5–3.6 | 8.1 |
| Brewers @ Padres | Dustin May vs. Robbie Ray | Brewers | 52% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Astros @ Giants | Bryan King vs. TBD | Giants | 50% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.8 |
| Phillies @ Cardinals | Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Leahy | Phillies | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Ranger Suarez vs. José Soriano | Red Sox | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Cubs @ Nationals | David Peterson vs. Jackson Kent | Cubs | 56% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.5 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it — so hot offenses and pitcher's duels get different totals while the pick and win probability stay pure Elo. Expected runs are shown at one decimal (integer rounding collapses nearly every game onto 6–3); read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb