MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-13
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 74-46 | +62 | 1532 | 96.6 | 80% | 100% |
| Yankees | 68-52 | +90 | 1540 | 91.8 | 18% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 64-56 | +79 | 1540 | 87.4 | 2% | 93% |
| Blue Jays | 59-63 | -54 | 1498 | 79.0 | <1% | 17% |
| Orioles | 58-63 | -36 | 1491 | 77.5 | <1% | 8% |
AL Central — White Sox 49%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 62-57 | +41 | 1497 | 83.7 | 49% | 67% |
| Tigers | 59-61 | +87 | 1523 | 81.9 | 28% | 47% |
| Guardians | 59-62 | -27 | 1494 | 80.2 | 14% | 28% |
| Twins | 60-62 | -32 | 1484 | 79.2 | 9% | 20% |
| Royals | 49-73 | -114 | 1462 | 67.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 63%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 62-60 | -27 | 1502 | 82.9 | 63% | 72% |
| Rangers | 60-61 | -34 | 1491 | 80.7 | 31% | 41% |
| Mariners | 56-65 | -27 | 1490 | 76.6 | 6% | 8% |
| Athletics | 47-74 | -180 | 1433 | 64.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 47-74 | -90 | 1444 | 64.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 73-49 | +119 | 1538 | 95.1 | 97% | 100% |
| Phillies | 64-58 | -7 | 1517 | 84.6 | 3% | 50% |
| Marlins | 62-59 | +23 | 1501 | 81.7 | <1% | 21% |
| Nationals | 59-63 | +16 | 1480 | 77.9 | <1% | 3% |
| Mets | 53-69 | -47 | 1489 | 72.0 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 71%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 74-47 | +130 | 1557 | 97.0 | 71% | 100% |
| Cubs | 71-50 | +115 | 1553 | 94.1 | 29% | 100% |
| Reds | 57-62 | -78 | 1478 | 75.6 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 58-64 | +13 | 1489 | 76.9 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 61-60 | -1 | 1492 | 80.9 | <1% | 13% |
NL West — Dodgers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 73-48 | +142 | 1552 | 96.9 | 98% | 100% |
| Padres | 65-57 | +1 | 1521 | 86.3 | 1% | 70% |
| Diamondbacks | 64-58 | +11 | 1510 | 84.2 | <1% | 43% |
| Rockies | 48-73 | -116 | 1422 | 63.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 51-71 | -59 | 1478 | 70.1 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (80%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (38%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb