How the 2026-08-12 predictions scored against actual results
8/15 correct (53%) · log-loss 0.668 · Brier 0.237 · avg margin error 3.2 · avg total-runs error 2.8
Running record: 48/85 (56.5%) · cumulative log-loss 0.680 · cumulative Brier 0.244
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Rockies @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (66%) | 5.5–4 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ✅ | Rays @ Athletics | Rays (60%) | 5.4–4 | 4–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mets @ Braves | Braves (60%) | 4.8–4 | 6–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Reds @ White Sox | White Sox (55%) | 4.6–4.3 | 5–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Guardians @ Tigers | Tigers (58%) | 4.7–4.1 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rangers @ Angels | Rangers (54%) | 4.6–3.9 | 5–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Dodgers | Dodgers (66%) | 5.3–3.8 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Marlins | Marlins (54%) | 4.5–4.3 | 8–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Twins | Twins (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 7–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Mariners @ Yankees | Yankees (60%) | 4.5–3.6 | 10–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Padres | Brewers (52%) | 4.7–4.2 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Astros @ Giants | Giants (50%) | 4.6–4.5 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Phillies @ Cardinals | Phillies (51%) | 4.6–4.2 | 7–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Red Sox (53%) | 4.6–4 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cubs @ Nationals | Cubs (56%) | 5.3–4.3 | 6–12 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb