Predictions for every game on 2026-08-13 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds @ White Sox | Andrew Abbott vs. Davis Martin | White Sox | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Guardians @ Tigers | Parker Messick vs. Keider Montero | Tigers | 58% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Rangers @ Angels | Jacob deGrom vs. Walbert Ureña | Rangers | 53% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 |
| Brewers @ Dodgers | Shane Drohan vs. Roki Sasaki | Dodgers | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Pirates @ Marlins | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Tyler Phillips | Marlins | 55% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Phillies @ Twins | Aaron Nola vs. Taj Bradley | Phillies | 51% | 4.7–4.3 | 9.0 |
| Mariners @ Yankees | Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried | Yankees | 60% | 4.6–3.7 | 8.3 |
| Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Payton Tolle vs. Max Scherzer | Red Sox | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Cubs @ Nationals | Kevin Gausman vs. Cade Cavalli | Cubs | 57% | 5.4–4.3 | 9.7 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it — so hot offenses and pitcher's duels get different totals while the pick and win probability stay pure Elo. Expected runs are shown at one decimal (integer rounding collapses nearly every game onto 6–3); read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb