MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-14
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 83%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 74-46 | +62 | 1532 | 96.7 | 83% | 100% |
| Yankees | 68-53 | +89 | 1539 | 91.2 | 14% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 65-56 | +86 | 1543 | 88.2 | 4% | 96% |
| Orioles | 58-63 | -36 | 1491 | 77.6 | <1% | 9% |
| Blue Jays | 59-64 | -61 | 1495 | 78.4 | <1% | 14% |
AL Central — White Sox 42%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 62-58 | +40 | 1496 | 83.0 | 42% | 63% |
| Tigers | 60-61 | +90 | 1525 | 82.6 | 40% | 58% |
| Guardians | 59-63 | -30 | 1493 | 79.7 | 12% | 25% |
| Twins | 60-63 | -38 | 1481 | 78.5 | 7% | 16% |
| Royals | 49-73 | -114 | 1462 | 67.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 68%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 62-60 | -27 | 1502 | 82.8 | 68% | 74% |
| Rangers | 60-62 | -41 | 1488 | 79.7 | 23% | 32% |
| Mariners | 57-65 | -26 | 1491 | 77.2 | 9% | 12% |
| Athletics | 47-74 | -180 | 1433 | 64.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 48-74 | -83 | 1448 | 65.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 73-49 | +119 | 1538 | 95.2 | 97% | 100% |
| Phillies | 65-58 | -1 | 1520 | 85.2 | 3% | 55% |
| Marlins | 62-60 | +11 | 1497 | 80.8 | <1% | 13% |
| Mets | 53-69 | -47 | 1489 | 72.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 60-63 | +23 | 1483 | 78.8 | <1% | 4% |
NL Central — Brewers 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 75-47 | +131 | 1558 | 97.7 | 80% | 100% |
| Cubs | 71-51 | +108 | 1549 | 93.3 | 20% | 99% |
| Reds | 58-62 | -77 | 1479 | 76.2 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 59-64 | +25 | 1493 | 77.6 | <1% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 61-60 | -1 | 1492 | 80.9 | <1% | 12% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 73-49 | +141 | 1551 | 96.2 | 97% | 100% |
| Padres | 65-57 | +1 | 1521 | 86.4 | 2% | 71% |
| Diamondbacks | 64-58 | +11 | 1510 | 84.4 | 1% | 44% |
| Rockies | 48-73 | -116 | 1422 | 63.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 51-71 | -59 | 1478 | 70.1 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (82%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (47%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb