How the 2026-08-13 predictions scored against actual results
3/9 correct (33%) · log-loss 0.752 · Brier 0.279 · avg margin error 5.2 · avg total-runs error 3.7
Running record: 51/94 (54.3%) · cumulative log-loss 0.687 · cumulative Brier 0.247
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Reds @ White Sox | White Sox (56%) | 4.6–4.2 | 8–9 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Tigers | Tigers (58%) | 4.7–4.1 | 3–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rangers @ Angels | Rangers (53%) | 4.6–3.9 | 7–0 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Dodgers | Dodgers (53%) | 4.5–4.4 | 4–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Pirates @ Marlins | Marlins (55%) | 4.6–4.3 | 1–13 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Twins | Phillies (51%) | 4.7–4.3 | 1–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mariners @ Yankees | Yankees (60%) | 4.6–3.7 | 0–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Blue Jays | Red Sox (53%) | 4.6–4 | 0–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cubs @ Nationals | Cubs (57%) | 5.4–4.3 | 7–0 (home first) |
Log-loss baseline: 0.693 is a coin flip, ~0.691 is always-pick-home; the model's 2009–2025 backtest ran 0.680.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb