Predictions for every game on 2026-08-14 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers @ Athletics | Kumar Rocker vs. TBD | Rangers | 54% | 5.1–4.3 | 9.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Braves | Brandon Pfaadt vs. TBD | Braves | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Cardinals @ Cubs | Matthew Liberatore vs. Clay Holmes | Cubs | 61% | 5.0–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Marlins @ Reds | Sandy Alcantara vs. Chase Burns | Reds | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.8 |
| Padres @ Guardians | Michael King vs. Gavin Williams | Padres | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| White Sox @ Tigers | Sean Newcomb vs. Jackson Jobe | Tigers | 58% | 4.8–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Mariners @ Astros | George Kirby vs. Peter Lambert | Astros | 55% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 |
| Royals @ Angels | Seth Lugo vs. Grayson Rodriguez | Angels | 51% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.7 |
| Brewers @ Dodgers | Robert Gasser vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Dodgers | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Nationals @ Mets | Andrew Alvarez vs. Robert Stock | Mets | 54% | 4.8–4.6 | 9.4 |
| Red Sox @ Pirates | Jake Bennett vs. Bubba Chandler | Red Sox | 54% | 4.9–4.2 | 9.0 |
| Rockies @ Giants | Kyle Freeland vs. Landen Roupp | Giants | 61% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.3 |
| Orioles @ Rays | TBD vs. Steven Matz | Rays | 59% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Yankees @ Blue Jays | Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber | Yankees | 53% | 4.4–3.8 | 8.2 |
Probable starters from MLB (TBD when unannounced) — shown for context only; the model is a team-level Elo and does not adjust for starter identity. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it — so hot offenses and pitcher's duels get different totals while the pick and win probability stay pure Elo. Expected runs are shown at one decimal (integer rounding collapses nearly every game onto 6–3); read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb