MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-15
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 86%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 74-47 | +61 | 1531 | 95.9 | 86% | 100% |
| Yankees | 68-54 | +87 | 1537 | 89.9 | 11% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 65-57 | +82 | 1540 | 87.4 | 4% | 95% |
| Orioles | 59-63 | -35 | 1492 | 78.3 | <1% | 15% |
| Blue Jays | 60-64 | -59 | 1497 | 78.5 | <1% | 16% |
AL Central — White Sox 55%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 63-58 | +44 | 1498 | 83.4 | 55% | 71% |
| Tigers | 60-62 | +86 | 1522 | 81.2 | 26% | 45% |
| Twins | 60-63 | -38 | 1481 | 78.7 | 9% | 19% |
| Guardians | 59-64 | -32 | 1491 | 79.1 | 9% | 22% |
| Royals | 50-73 | -113 | 1463 | 67.9 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 77%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 63-60 | -24 | 1504 | 83.3 | 77% | 82% |
| Rangers | 60-63 | -46 | 1485 | 79.1 | 17% | 26% |
| Mariners | 57-66 | -29 | 1490 | 76.7 | 6% | 9% |
| Athletics | 48-74 | -175 | 1436 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 48-75 | -84 | 1446 | 64.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 95%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 73-50 | +117 | 1536 | 94.5 | 95% | 100% |
| Phillies | 65-58 | -1 | 1520 | 85.3 | 5% | 54% |
| Nationals | 60-64 | +20 | 1481 | 77.8 | <1% | 1% |
| Mets | 54-69 | -44 | 1491 | 72.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Marlins | 62-61 | +10 | 1496 | 80.3 | <1% | 9% |
NL Central — Brewers 77%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 75-48 | +129 | 1557 | 97.0 | 77% | 100% |
| Cubs | 72-51 | +111 | 1551 | 93.1 | 23% | 99% |
| Cardinals | 61-61 | -4 | 1491 | 79.8 | <1% | 7% |
| Reds | 59-62 | -76 | 1480 | 76.8 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 60-64 | +29 | 1496 | 78.3 | <1% | 3% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 74-49 | +143 | 1553 | 97.0 | 97% | 100% |
| Padres | 66-57 | +3 | 1522 | 86.9 | 3% | 76% |
| Diamondbacks | 65-58 | +13 | 1512 | 85.0 | 1% | 50% |
| Rockies | 49-73 | -113 | 1424 | 64.0 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 51-72 | -62 | 1476 | 68.8 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (85%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (40%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb