How the 2026-08-15 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0080 ± 0.0320 per game over 10 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 5/10 | 0.728 |
| always-pick-home | 2/10 | 0.736 |
Daily detail: 50% hit rate · Brier 0.268 · avg margin error 4.0 · avg total-runs error 3.7. Running: 5/10 (50.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.728 · cumulative Brier 0.268
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Rangers @ Athletics | Rangers (51%) | 4.9–4.5 | 3–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Diamondbacks @ Braves | Braves (56%) | 4.5–4.2 | 3–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Marlins @ Reds | Reds (55%) | 4.4–4.1 | 4–8 (home first) |
| ❌ | Padres @ Guardians | Padres (53%) | 4.8–4.1 | 6–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mariners @ Astros | Astros (56%) | 4.6–4.1 | 5–10 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Angels | Angels (52%) | 4.5–4.4 | 1–0 (home first) |
| ✅ | Brewers @ Dodgers | Brewers (53%) | 4.6–4 | 1–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Phillies @ Twins | Phillies (53%) | 4.8–4.2 | 1–9 (home first) |
| ✅ | Red Sox @ Pirates | Red Sox (53%) | 4.8–4.2 | 0–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Rays | Rays (57%) | 4.7–4.2 | 3–4 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb