Predictions for every game on 2026-08-15 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers @ Athletics | MacKenzie Gore vs. J.T. Ginn | +4.1 / +19.8 | Rangers | 51% | 4.9–4.5 | 9.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Braves | Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Grant Holmes | +1.2 / -7.7 | Braves | 56% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Reds | Ryan Gusto vs. Brady Singer | -26.8 / +1.6 | Reds | 55% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.6 |
| Padres @ Guardians | Wandy Peralta vs. Joey Cantillo | +12.5 / -4.2 | Padres | 53% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Mariners @ Astros | Emerson Hancock vs. Hayden Wesneski | -1.4 / +5.4 | Astros | 56% | 4.6–4.1 | 8.7 |
| Royals @ Angels | Randy Dobnak vs. Reid Detmers | +0.3 / +3.6 | Angels | 52% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.8 |
| Brewers @ Dodgers | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Justin Wrobleski | +31.4 / -8.1 | Brewers | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.7 |
| Phillies @ Twins | Jesús Luzardo vs. Connor Prielipp | +7.4 / +1.0 | Phillies | 53% | 4.8–4.2 | 9.0 |
| Red Sox @ Pirates | Sonny Gray vs. Jared Jones | +6.4 / +6.1 | Red Sox | 53% | 4.8–4.2 | 9.1 |
| Orioles @ Rays | Kyle Bradish vs. Ian Seymour | +14.1 / -2.4 | Rays | 57% | 4.7–4.2 | 8.9 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb