MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-16
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 82%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 74-48 | +60 | 1530 | 95.3 | 82% | 100% |
| Yankees | 68-55 | +84 | 1535 | 89.9 | 14% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 66-57 | +86 | 1543 | 88.2 | 5% | 96% |
| Orioles | 60-63 | -34 | 1494 | 78.8 | <1% | 15% |
| Blue Jays | 61-64 | -56 | 1499 | 79.7 | <1% | 21% |
AL Central — White Sox 62%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 64-58 | +45 | 1500 | 84.4 | 62% | 76% |
| Tigers | 60-63 | +85 | 1521 | 81.3 | 23% | 41% |
| Guardians | 60-64 | -27 | 1494 | 79.8 | 11% | 24% |
| Twins | 60-64 | -46 | 1478 | 78.0 | 5% | 12% |
| Royals | 50-74 | -114 | 1462 | 67.4 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 66%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 63-61 | -29 | 1501 | 82.5 | 66% | 72% |
| Rangers | 61-63 | -44 | 1486 | 79.6 | 24% | 31% |
| Mariners | 58-66 | -24 | 1492 | 77.4 | 9% | 13% |
| Athletics | 48-75 | -177 | 1434 | 64.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 49-75 | -83 | 1448 | 65.2 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 92%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 73-51 | +110 | 1532 | 93.5 | 92% | 99% |
| Phillies | 66-58 | +7 | 1523 | 86.0 | 8% | 60% |
| Marlins | 63-61 | +14 | 1498 | 81.1 | <1% | 10% |
| Mets | 55-69 | -43 | 1492 | 73.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 60-65 | +19 | 1480 | 77.6 | <1% | 1% |
NL Central — Brewers 83%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 76-48 | +132 | 1559 | 97.7 | 83% | 100% |
| Cubs | 72-52 | +107 | 1548 | 92.9 | 17% | 99% |
| Reds | 59-63 | -80 | 1478 | 76.1 | <1% | 1% |
| Pirates | 60-65 | +25 | 1494 | 77.6 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 62-61 | +0 | 1494 | 81.1 | <1% | 9% |
NL West — Dodgers 97%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 74-50 | +140 | 1551 | 96.2 | 97% | 100% |
| Padres | 66-58 | -2 | 1520 | 86.4 | 2% | 64% |
| Diamondbacks | 66-58 | +20 | 1516 | 85.8 | 1% | 56% |
| Rockies | 49-74 | -119 | 1422 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 52-72 | -56 | 1478 | 70.1 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (82%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (53%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb