How the 2026-08-16 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: +0.0065 ± 0.0192 per game over 25 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently behind).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 4/15 | 0.743 |
| always-pick-home | 4/15 | 0.727 |
Daily detail: 27% hit rate · Brier 0.275 · avg margin error 3.9 · avg total-runs error 3.3. Running: 9/25 (36.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.737 · cumulative Brier 0.272
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Rangers @ Athletics | Rangers (53%) | 5–4.4 | 5–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Diamondbacks @ Braves | Braves (54%) | 4.5–4.3 | 5–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cardinals @ Cubs | Cubs (62%) | 4.9–3.9 | 4–11 (home first) |
| ❌ | Marlins @ Reds | Reds (51%) | 4.5–4.4 | 1–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Padres @ Guardians | Padres (52%) | 4.6–4.2 | 0–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | White Sox @ Tigers | Tigers (52%) | 4.6–4.5 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mariners @ Astros | Astros (57%) | 4.6–4.2 | 2–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Royals @ Angels | Royals (53%) | 4.6–4 | 0–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Brewers @ Dodgers | Dodgers (53%) | 4.4–4.3 | 2–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Phillies @ Twins | Twins (53%) | 4.6–4.5 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ✅ | Nationals @ Mets | Mets (57%) | 4.9–4.4 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Red Sox @ Pirates | Red Sox (50%) | 4.6–4.3 | 8–3 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rockies @ Giants | Giants (60%) | 5–4.2 | 7–13 (home first) |
| ❌ | Orioles @ Rays | Rays (56%) | 4.6–4.2 | 2–10 (home first) |
| ❌ | Yankees @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays (53%) | 4.1–4 | 3–4 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb