Predictions for every game on 2026-08-16 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers @ Athletics | Cody Bradford vs. Jacob Lopez | +7.1 / +13.5 | Rangers | 53% | 5.0–4.4 | 9.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Braves | Michael Soroka vs. Bryce Elder | +3.2 / -10.2 | Braves | 54% | 4.5–4.3 | 8.8 |
| Cardinals @ Cubs | Hunter Dobbins vs. Edward Cabrera | -6.1 / -1.9 | Cubs | 62% | 4.9–3.9 | 8.9 |
| Marlins @ Reds | Eury Pérez vs. Nick Lodolo | +6.1 / +6.1 | Reds | 51% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.7 |
| Padres @ Guardians | Casey Mize vs. Tanner Bibee | +10.4 / +0.7 | Padres | 52% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| White Sox @ Tigers | Sean Burke vs. Drew Anderson | +10.7 / -20.1 | Tigers | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Mariners @ Astros | Bryan Woo vs. Hunter Brown | +10.2 / +24.8 | Astros | 57% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Royals @ Angels | Noah Cameron vs. Ryan Johnson | +8.0 / -24.8 | Royals | 53% | 4.6–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Brewers @ Dodgers | Logan Henderson vs. Tarik Skubal | +16.3 / +22.7 | Dodgers | 53% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 |
| Phillies @ Twins | Andrew Painter vs. Dean Kremer | -35.1 / +9.9 | Twins | 53% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Nationals @ Mets | Jake Irvin vs. Christian Scott | -10.5 / +4.7 | Mets | 57% | 4.9–4.4 | 9.3 |
| Red Sox @ Pirates | Patrick Sandoval vs. Lake Bachar | -15.1 / +9.9 | Red Sox | 50% | 4.6–4.3 | 9.0 |
| Rockies @ Giants | Gabriel Hughes vs. Blade Tidwell | +8.5 / -1.3 | Giants | 60% | 5.0–4.2 | 9.2 |
| Orioles @ Rays | Trevor Rogers vs. Freddy Peralta | +8.6 / -11.5 | Rays | 56% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Yankees @ Blue Jays | Ryan Weathers vs. Dylan Cease | -12.1 / +18.1 | Blue Jays | 53% | 4.1–4.0 | 8.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb