MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-17
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 77%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 74-49 | +52 | 1526 | 94.6 | 77% | 100% |
| Yankees | 69-55 | +85 | 1536 | 90.5 | 18% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 66-58 | +81 | 1540 | 87.4 | 5% | 95% |
| Blue Jays | 61-65 | -57 | 1498 | 79.1 | <1% | 19% |
| Orioles | 61-63 | -26 | 1497 | 79.6 | <1% | 23% |
AL Central — White Sox 73%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 65-58 | +47 | 1501 | 85.0 | 73% | 83% |
| Tigers | 60-64 | +83 | 1519 | 80.7 | 17% | 36% |
| Guardians | 60-65 | -32 | 1491 | 79.1 | 7% | 20% |
| Twins | 60-65 | -48 | 1476 | 77.5 | 4% | 10% |
| Royals | 51-74 | -111 | 1464 | 68.1 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 63%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 63-62 | -30 | 1500 | 82.0 | 63% | 68% |
| Rangers | 61-64 | -47 | 1484 | 78.9 | 21% | 27% |
| Mariners | 59-66 | -23 | 1494 | 78.1 | 16% | 20% |
| Athletics | 49-75 | -174 | 1436 | 65.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 49-76 | -86 | 1445 | 64.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 93%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 74-51 | +112 | 1534 | 94.1 | 93% | 100% |
| Phillies | 67-58 | +9 | 1524 | 86.5 | 6% | 61% |
| Marlins | 64-61 | +20 | 1501 | 81.7 | <1% | 13% |
| Nationals | 60-66 | +18 | 1479 | 77.1 | <1% | 1% |
| Mets | 56-69 | -42 | 1493 | 73.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 90%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 77-48 | +136 | 1562 | 98.4 | 90% | 100% |
| Cubs | 72-53 | +100 | 1544 | 92.2 | 10% | 98% |
| Reds | 59-64 | -86 | 1475 | 75.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 61-65 | +30 | 1496 | 78.4 | <1% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 63-61 | +7 | 1498 | 81.7 | <1% | 13% |
NL West — Dodgers 96%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 74-51 | +136 | 1548 | 95.5 | 96% | 100% |
| Padres | 67-58 | +3 | 1522 | 87.0 | 4% | 69% |
| Diamondbacks | 66-59 | +18 | 1514 | 85.2 | 1% | 45% |
| Rockies | 50-74 | -113 | 1426 | 64.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 52-73 | -62 | 1474 | 69.3 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (76%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (61%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb