How the 2026-08-17 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0178 ± 0.0180 per game over 36 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 8/11 | 0.592 |
| always-pick-home | 8/11 | 0.664 |
Daily detail: 73% hit rate · Brier 0.200 · avg margin error 2.4 · avg total-runs error 4.0. Running: 17/36 (47.2%) · cumulative log-loss 0.693 · cumulative Brier 0.250
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ | Diamondbacks @ Red Sox | Red Sox (57%) | 4.7–4.1 | 11–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | White Sox @ Cubs | Cubs (61%) | 5.2–4.2 | 7–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cardinals @ Reds | Reds (50%) | 4.5–4.4 | 1–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Rockies | Dodgers (64%) | 5.6–3.8 | 5–11 (home first) |
| ✅ | Athletics @ Royals | Royals (61%) | 5.2–4.2 | 9–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Braves @ Twins | Braves (53%) | 4.8–4.2 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Padres @ Mets | Mets (53%) | 4.5–4.4 | 2–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Marlins @ Phillies | Phillies (61%) | 4.9–3.9 | 6–5 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Pirates | Tigers (50%) | 4.7–4.4 | 5–8 (home first) |
| ✅ | Orioles @ Rays | Rays (58%) | 4.7–4.1 | 7–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cardinals @ Reds | Cardinals (51%) | 4.5–4.2 | 6–5 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb