Predictions for every game on 2026-08-17 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks @ Red Sox | Mitch Bratt vs. TBD | -1.7 / +0.0 | Red Sox | 57% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.8 |
| White Sox @ Cubs | Luis Castillo vs. Shota Imanaga | +4.4 / +14.3 | Cubs | 61% | 5.2–4.2 | 9.4 |
| Cardinals @ Reds | TBD vs. TBD | +0.0 / +0.0 | Reds | 50% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.6 |
| Dodgers @ Rockies | Blake Snell vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | +17.0 / +15.8 | Dodgers | 64% | 5.6–3.8 | 9.4 |
| Athletics @ Royals | Mason Barnett vs. Michael Wacha | -17.4 / +9.0 | Royals | 61% | 5.2–4.2 | 9.4 |
| Braves @ Twins | Martín Pérez vs. Bailey Ober | -4.2 / +5.4 | Braves | 53% | 4.8–4.2 | 8.9 |
| Padres @ Mets | Walker Buehler vs. Nolan McLean | -3.3 / +18.9 | Mets | 53% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.9 |
| Marlins @ Phillies | Janson Junk vs. Cristopher Sánchez | -19.9 / +12.9 | Phillies | 61% | 4.9–3.9 | 8.8 |
| Tigers @ Pirates | Framber Valdez vs. Carmen Mlodzinski | -7.9 / -13.2 | Tigers | 50% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.1 |
| Orioles @ Rays | Brandon Young vs. Shane McClanahan | -1.5 / +2.9 | Rays | 58% | 4.7–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Cardinals @ Reds (G2) | TBD vs. Rhett Lowder | +0.0 / -6.8 | Cardinals | 51% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.6 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb