MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-18
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 78%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 75-49 | +53 | 1527 | 95.0 | 78% | 100% |
| Yankees | 69-55 | +85 | 1536 | 90.5 | 17% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 67-58 | +91 | 1543 | 88.0 | 5% | 96% |
| Orioles | 61-64 | -27 | 1496 | 79.2 | <1% | 18% |
| Blue Jays | 61-65 | -57 | 1498 | 79.2 | <1% | 18% |
AL Central — White Sox 68%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 65-59 | +45 | 1500 | 84.7 | 68% | 81% |
| Tigers | 61-64 | +86 | 1521 | 81.0 | 19% | 38% |
| Guardians | 60-65 | -32 | 1491 | 79.1 | 7% | 20% |
| Twins | 61-65 | -46 | 1478 | 78.0 | 5% | 12% |
| Royals | 52-74 | -107 | 1466 | 68.6 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 66%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 63-62 | -30 | 1500 | 82.1 | 66% | 71% |
| Rangers | 61-64 | -47 | 1484 | 78.9 | 20% | 27% |
| Mariners | 59-66 | -23 | 1494 | 78.0 | 14% | 18% |
| Athletics | 49-76 | -178 | 1434 | 64.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 49-76 | -86 | 1445 | 64.7 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 91%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 74-52 | +110 | 1532 | 93.5 | 91% | 99% |
| Phillies | 68-58 | +10 | 1525 | 86.9 | 9% | 72% |
| Marlins | 64-62 | +19 | 1500 | 81.2 | <1% | 11% |
| Mets | 57-69 | -41 | 1494 | 74.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 60-66 | +18 | 1479 | 77.2 | <1% | 1% |
NL Central — Brewers 87%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 77-48 | +136 | 1562 | 98.5 | 87% | 100% |
| Cubs | 73-53 | +102 | 1545 | 92.7 | 13% | 99% |
| Reds | 60-65 | -86 | 1475 | 75.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 61-66 | +27 | 1494 | 77.7 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 64-62 | +7 | 1498 | 81.8 | <1% | 12% |
NL West — Dodgers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 75-51 | +142 | 1550 | 96.1 | 98% | 100% |
| Padres | 67-59 | +2 | 1521 | 86.3 | 2% | 65% |
| Diamondbacks | 66-60 | +8 | 1511 | 84.7 | <1% | 40% |
| Rockies | 50-75 | -119 | 1424 | 64.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 52-73 | -62 | 1474 | 69.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (78%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (61%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb