Predictions for every game on 2026-08-18 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Orioles | Carlos Rodón vs. Shane Baz | +1.3 / +3.4 | Yankees | 52% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.5 |
| Diamondbacks @ Red Sox | Merrill Kelly vs. Ranger Suarez | -4.8 / +2.6 | Red Sox | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| White Sox @ Cubs | TBD vs. Kevin Gausman | +0.0 / +6.2 | Cubs | 61% | 5.2–4.3 | 9.4 |
| Cardinals @ Reds | Kyle Leahy vs. Andrew Abbott | +3.0 / +4.1 | Reds | 50% | 4.5–4.4 | 8.6 |
| Giants @ Guardians | Carson Whisenhunt vs. Foster Griffin | -21.6 / +5.9 | Guardians | 60% | 4.8–3.9 | 8.7 |
| Dodgers @ Rockies | Eric Lauer vs. Ryan Feltner | -15.3 / +13.6 | Dodgers | 60% | 5.5–4.1 | 9.6 |
| Angels @ Astros | George Klassen vs. Cristian Javier | -1.5 / +1.2 | Astros | 62% | 4.8–3.8 | 8.6 |
| Athletics @ Royals | Jack Perkins vs. TBD | -11.2 / +0.0 | Royals | 60% | 5.1–4.4 | 9.5 |
| Mariners @ Brewers | Bryce Miller vs. Kyle Harrison | -0.1 / -8.7 | Brewers | 62% | 4.7–3.7 | 8.5 |
| Braves @ Twins | Tyler Mahle vs. Zebby Matthews | +1.1 / -6.2 | Braves | 55% | 4.9–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Padres @ Mets | Robbie Ray vs. Zac Thornton | +9.0 / +12.4 | Padres | 50% | 4.5–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Marlins @ Phillies | Cade Gibson vs. Zack Wheeler | -4.3 / +17.6 | Phillies | 60% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Tigers @ Pirates | Keider Montero vs. Braxton Ashcraft | -3.9 / +17.8 | Pirates | 53% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.2 |
| Blue Jays @ Rays | José Soriano vs. Nick Martinez | -1.2 / -2.8 | Rays | 57% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.6 |
| Nationals @ Rangers | Jackson Kent vs. Cal Quantrill | +3.2 / -11.3 | Rangers | 52% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.2 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb