MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-19
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 69%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 75-50 | +48 | 1524 | 94.2 | 69% | 100% |
| Yankees | 70-55 | +87 | 1538 | 91.1 | 24% | 99% |
| Red Sox | 68-58 | +96 | 1545 | 88.4 | 7% | 98% |
| Orioles | 61-65 | -29 | 1495 | 78.5 | <1% | 14% |
| Blue Jays | 62-65 | -52 | 1501 | 79.9 | <1% | 27% |
AL Central — White Sox 64%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 65-60 | +44 | 1499 | 84.2 | 64% | 76% |
| Tigers | 61-65 | +83 | 1519 | 80.4 | 16% | 32% |
| Guardians | 61-65 | -25 | 1494 | 79.8 | 12% | 25% |
| Twins | 62-65 | -43 | 1480 | 78.7 | 8% | 15% |
| Royals | 53-74 | -106 | 1467 | 69.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 59%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 63-63 | -32 | 1498 | 81.4 | 59% | 64% |
| Rangers | 62-64 | -42 | 1487 | 79.5 | 29% | 35% |
| Mariners | 59-67 | -45 | 1490 | 77.4 | 13% | 15% |
| Athletics | 49-77 | -179 | 1433 | 64.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 50-76 | -84 | 1447 | 65.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 86%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 74-53 | +107 | 1530 | 92.9 | 86% | 99% |
| Phillies | 69-58 | +12 | 1527 | 87.4 | 14% | 75% |
| Marlins | 64-63 | +17 | 1499 | 80.7 | <1% | 7% |
| Mets | 57-70 | -44 | 1492 | 73.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 60-67 | +13 | 1477 | 76.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 78-48 | +158 | 1565 | 98.9 | 88% | 100% |
| Cubs | 74-53 | +103 | 1546 | 93.2 | 12% | 99% |
| Reds | 60-66 | -89 | 1473 | 74.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 62-66 | +30 | 1496 | 78.3 | <1% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 65-62 | +10 | 1500 | 82.4 | <1% | 14% |
NL West — Dodgers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 76-51 | +143 | 1551 | 96.5 | 98% | 100% |
| Padres | 68-59 | +5 | 1523 | 87.1 | 2% | 72% |
| Diamondbacks | 66-61 | +3 | 1509 | 84.1 | <1% | 32% |
| Rockies | 50-76 | -120 | 1423 | 63.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 52-74 | -69 | 1472 | 68.5 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (69%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (65%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb