How the 2026-08-19 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0188 ± 0.0148 per game over 66 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 7/15 | 0.699 |
| always-pick-home | 8/15 | 0.691 |
Daily detail: 47% hit rate · Brier 0.253 · avg margin error 2.0 · avg total-runs error 3.4. Running: 35/66 (53.0%) · cumulative log-loss 0.681 · cumulative Brier 0.244
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Yankees @ Orioles | Orioles (50%) | 4.4–4.3 | 3–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Diamondbacks @ Red Sox | Red Sox (60%) | 4.9–4.1 | 6–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | White Sox @ Cubs | Cubs (62%) | 5.2–4.2 | 0–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Reds | Reds (55%) | 4.4–4.1 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Giants @ Guardians | Guardians (59%) | 4.7–4 | 0–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Dodgers @ Rockies | Dodgers (62%) | 5.6–4.1 | 4–6 (home first) |
| ✅ | Angels @ Astros | Astros (59%) | 4.6–3.9 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Athletics @ Royals | Royals (58%) | 5–4.4 | 9–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mariners @ Brewers | Brewers (60%) | 4.8–4 | 5–7 (home first) |
| ❌ | Braves @ Twins | Braves (51%) | 4.6–4.2 | 6–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Padres @ Mets | Padres (57%) | 4.9–3.8 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Marlins @ Phillies | Phillies (55%) | 4.6–4.3 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Pirates | Pirates (56%) | 4.7–4.3 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Blue Jays @ Rays | Rays (60%) | 4.8–3.9 | 7–6 (home first) |
| ❌ | Nationals @ Rangers | Rangers (51%) | 4.7–4.6 | 0–6 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb