Predictions for every game on 2026-08-19 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Orioles | Will Warren vs. Chris Bassitt | -24.9 / -5.1 | Orioles | 50% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.4 |
| Diamondbacks @ Red Sox | Brandon Pfaadt vs. Payton Tolle | +2.4 / +14.2 | Red Sox | 60% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| White Sox @ Cubs | Sean Newcomb vs. Clay Holmes | -4.7 / +8.0 | Cubs | 62% | 5.2–4.2 | 9.4 |
| Cardinals @ Reds | Matthew Liberatore vs. Chase Burns | -16.7 / +23.0 | Reds | 55% | 4.4–4.1 | 8.5 |
| Giants @ Guardians | Matt Wilkinson vs. Parker Messick | +1.2 / +14.9 | Guardians | 59% | 4.7–4.0 | 8.7 |
| Dodgers @ Rockies | Roki Sasaki vs. Kyle Freeland | -9.4 / +12.4 | Dodgers | 62% | 5.6–4.1 | 9.7 |
| Angels @ Astros | Walbert Ureña vs. Ethan Pecko | +11.9 / +4.1 | Astros | 59% | 4.6–3.9 | 8.5 |
| Athletics @ Royals | TBD vs. TBD | +0.0 / +0.0 | Royals | 58% | 5.0–4.4 | 9.4 |
| Mariners @ Brewers | Logan Gilbert vs. Dustin May | +19.1 / -10.2 | Brewers | 60% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.8 |
| Braves @ Twins | AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Taj Bradley | -5.9 / +10.4 | Braves | 51% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Padres @ Mets | Michael King vs. Robert Stock | +13.5 / -27.5 | Padres | 57% | 4.9–3.8 | 8.7 |
| Marlins @ Phillies | Sandy Alcantara vs. Aaron Nola | +3.6 / -16.2 | Phillies | 55% | 4.6–4.3 | 8.9 |
| Tigers @ Pirates | Jackson Jobe vs. Paul Skenes | -19.1 / +22.8 | Pirates | 56% | 4.7–4.3 | 9.1 |
| Blue Jays @ Rays | Max Scherzer vs. Drew Rasmussen | -7.0 / +16.0 | Rays | 60% | 4.8–3.9 | 8.7 |
| Nationals @ Rangers | Cade Cavalli vs. Kumar Rocker | +16.2 / -11.7 | Rangers | 51% | 4.7–4.6 | 9.1 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb