MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-20
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 72%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 76-50 | +49 | 1525 | 94.8 | 72% | 100% |
| Yankees | 71-55 | +89 | 1539 | 91.5 | 23% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 68-59 | +95 | 1544 | 87.9 | 5% | 96% |
| Orioles | 61-66 | -31 | 1493 | 77.9 | <1% | 10% |
| Blue Jays | 62-66 | -53 | 1500 | 79.5 | <1% | 23% |
AL Central — White Sox 74%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 66-60 | +47 | 1502 | 84.9 | 74% | 86% |
| Tigers | 61-66 | +82 | 1518 | 79.8 | 10% | 27% |
| Twins | 63-65 | -41 | 1482 | 79.3 | 9% | 21% |
| Guardians | 61-66 | -26 | 1493 | 79.1 | 7% | 19% |
| Royals | 54-74 | -104 | 1469 | 69.5 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 63%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 64-63 | -31 | 1499 | 81.9 | 63% | 69% |
| Rangers | 62-65 | -48 | 1483 | 78.9 | 21% | 28% |
| Mariners | 60-67 | -43 | 1492 | 78.2 | 16% | 20% |
| Athletics | 49-78 | -181 | 1432 | 63.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 50-77 | -85 | 1447 | 64.9 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 81%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 74-54 | +105 | 1528 | 92.2 | 81% | 99% |
| Phillies | 70-58 | +15 | 1528 | 87.9 | 19% | 81% |
| Marlins | 64-64 | +14 | 1497 | 80.2 | <1% | 5% |
| Mets | 58-70 | -42 | 1493 | 74.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 61-67 | +19 | 1480 | 77.4 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 88%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 78-49 | +156 | 1563 | 98.1 | 88% | 100% |
| Cubs | 74-54 | +100 | 1544 | 92.4 | 12% | 98% |
| Reds | 61-66 | -88 | 1474 | 75.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 63-66 | +31 | 1497 | 78.9 | <1% | 2% |
| Cardinals | 65-63 | +9 | 1499 | 82.0 | <1% | 12% |
NL West — Dodgers 98%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 77-51 | +145 | 1552 | 97.0 | 98% | 100% |
| Padres | 68-60 | +3 | 1522 | 86.4 | 1% | 65% |
| Diamondbacks | 67-61 | +4 | 1510 | 84.7 | <1% | 39% |
| Rockies | 50-77 | -122 | 1422 | 63.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 53-74 | -68 | 1473 | 68.9 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (72%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (55%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb