Predictions for every game on 2026-08-20 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees @ Orioles | Gerrit Cole vs. Kyle Bradish | +8.1 / +14.5 | Yankees | 52% | 4.4–3.9 | 8.4 |
| Braves @ White Sox | Grant Holmes vs. Anthony Kay | -5.9 / +1.4 | White Sox | 51% | 4.6–4.5 | 8.9 |
| Cardinals @ Reds | Michael McGreevy vs. Brady Singer | -7.3 / -0.4 | Reds | 51% | 4.4–4.3 | 8.5 |
| Giants @ Guardians | Landen Roupp vs. Gavin Williams | +0.1 / +9.4 | Guardians | 58% | 4.5–4.0 | 8.5 |
| Angels @ Astros | Grayson Rodriguez vs. Peter Lambert | -13.4 / +5.0 | Astros | 63% | 4.8–3.6 | 8.4 |
| Athletics @ Royals | Gage Jump vs. Randy Dobnak | +12.4 / -1.1 | Royals | 57% | 5.0–4.6 | 9.6 |
| Mariners @ Brewers | George Kirby vs. Robert Gasser | +0.7 / -9.7 | Brewers | 62% | 4.9–3.9 | 8.8 |
| Blue Jays @ Rays | Shane Bieber vs. Ian Seymour | +6.1 / +4.3 | Rays | 57% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Nationals @ Rangers | Andrew Alvarez vs. Jacob deGrom | +8.5 / +17.8 | Rangers | 55% | 4.7–4.4 | 9.0 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb