MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-21
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 62%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 76-51 | +45 | 1522 | 94.0 | 62% | 100% |
| Yankees | 72-55 | +94 | 1542 | 92.0 | 33% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 68-59 | +95 | 1544 | 87.9 | 5% | 97% |
| Blue Jays | 63-66 | -49 | 1503 | 80.2 | <1% | 29% |
| Orioles | 61-67 | -36 | 1491 | 77.4 | <1% | 8% |
AL Central — White Sox 68%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 66-61 | +45 | 1500 | 84.3 | 68% | 80% |
| Tigers | 61-66 | +82 | 1518 | 79.8 | 12% | 28% |
| Guardians | 62-66 | -23 | 1494 | 79.5 | 11% | 25% |
| Twins | 63-65 | -41 | 1482 | 79.3 | 9% | 21% |
| Royals | 55-74 | -100 | 1470 | 70.0 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 53%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 64-64 | -46 | 1494 | 80.9 | 53% | 57% |
| Rangers | 63-65 | -46 | 1485 | 79.4 | 30% | 35% |
| Mariners | 60-68 | -46 | 1491 | 77.9 | 17% | 21% |
| Athletics | 49-79 | -185 | 1430 | 63.1 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 51-77 | -70 | 1452 | 65.6 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 84%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 75-54 | +107 | 1530 | 92.8 | 84% | 99% |
| Phillies | 70-58 | +15 | 1528 | 88.0 | 15% | 78% |
| Marlins | 64-64 | +14 | 1497 | 80.3 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 58-70 | -42 | 1493 | 74.3 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 61-68 | +17 | 1479 | 76.8 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 91%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 79-49 | +159 | 1564 | 98.6 | 91% | 100% |
| Cubs | 74-54 | +100 | 1544 | 92.3 | 9% | 99% |
| Reds | 61-67 | -89 | 1473 | 74.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 63-66 | +31 | 1497 | 78.9 | <1% | 1% |
| Cardinals | 66-63 | +10 | 1500 | 82.6 | <1% | 14% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 77-51 | +145 | 1552 | 96.9 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 68-60 | +3 | 1522 | 86.5 | 1% | 63% |
| Diamondbacks | 67-61 | +4 | 1510 | 84.9 | <1% | 40% |
| Rockies | 50-77 | -122 | 1422 | 63.5 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 53-75 | -71 | 1471 | 68.6 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (62%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (60%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb