Predictions for every game on 2026-08-21 (ET)
| Matchup (home in bold) | SP (away vs. home) | SP adj (Elo, away/home) | Pick | Win prob | Exp. runs (winner first) | Exp. total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds @ Diamondbacks | Nick Lodolo vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | +5.4 / +6.6 | Diamondbacks | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.9 |
| Rays @ Orioles | Freddy Peralta vs. Trevor Rogers | -4.8 / +10.6 | Orioles | 52% | 4.6–4.5 | 9.0 |
| Giants @ Red Sox | Logan Webb vs. Sonny Gray | +18.1 / +10.9 | Red Sox | 63% | 5.0–3.8 | 8.8 |
| Mets @ White Sox | Sean Manaea vs. Sean Burke | +4.4 / +11.0 | White Sox | 55% | 4.6–4.2 | 8.8 |
| Guardians @ Rockies | Joey Cantillo vs. Tanner Gordon | -6.0 / -0.5 | Guardians | 55% | 5.1–4.2 | 9.3 |
| Athletics @ Astros | J.T. Ginn vs. Hayden Wesneski | +21.2 / +7.9 | Astros | 61% | 5.3–4.3 | 9.6 |
| Tigers @ Royals | Troy Melton vs. Noah Cameron | +20.7 / +10.7 | Tigers | 55% | 4.9–4.1 | 9.0 |
| Pirates @ Dodgers | Bubba Chandler vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +2.2 / +24.8 | Dodgers | 64% | 5.2–3.9 | 9.1 |
| Nationals @ Marlins | Brad Lord vs. Ryan Gusto | -6.5 / -24.2 | Marlins | 54% | 4.6–4.4 | 9.0 |
| Braves @ Brewers | Chris Sale vs. Jacob Misiorowski | +26.2 / +33.1 | Brewers | 60% | 4.7–3.9 | 8.7 |
| Blue Jays @ Yankees | TBD vs. Cam Schlittler | +0.0 / +13.9 | Yankees | 61% | 4.5–3.6 | 8.1 |
| Cardinals @ Phillies | TBD vs. Jesús Luzardo | +0.0 / +7.3 | Phillies | 59% | 4.8–4.1 | 8.8 |
| Twins @ Padres | Connor Prielipp vs. TBD | -4.7 / +0.0 | Padres | 60% | 4.8–4.0 | 8.9 |
| Cubs @ Mariners | Matthew Boyd vs. Emerson Hancock | +8.2 / +4.3 | Cubs | 55% | 5.0–4.1 | 9.1 |
| Angels @ Rangers | Reid Detmers vs. MacKenzie Gore | -0.5 / -0.1 | Rangers | 58% | 4.5–3.9 | 8.4 |
Starter identity IS a model input: each probable's rolling game score (exponentially weighted, 20-start half-life) is compared to his team's staff average and the difference enters the team's Elo at 3.0 points per game-score point (the SP adj column, so the effect is auditable per game). Rookies/thin history fall back to a shrunk staff rating; TBD uses the staff rating. Rest and travel add up to a few Elo points each. Win probability from Elo (+24 home advantage). Expected total is matchup-specific: each club's recent runs scored/allowed (exponentially weighted, ~20-game half-life, shrunk to league average) sets the run environment, and the Elo-implied margin is carved out of it. Expected runs are shown at one decimal; read them as averages, not a literal final score.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb