MLB Futures Forecast — 2026-08-22
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo: division winners, playoff odds, seeds
AL East — Rays 54%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Rays | 76-52 | +43 | 1520 | 93.4 | 54% | 100% |
| Yankees | 73-55 | +96 | 1543 | 92.5 | 40% | 100% |
| Red Sox | 69-59 | +97 | 1545 | 88.2 | 6% | 98% |
| Orioles | 62-67 | -34 | 1493 | 78.1 | <1% | 11% |
| Blue Jays | 63-67 | -51 | 1502 | 79.6 | <1% | 23% |
AL Central — White Sox 74%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| White Sox | 67-61 | +47 | 1502 | 84.8 | 74% | 85% |
| Guardians | 63-66 | -15 | 1497 | 80.2 | 12% | 29% |
| Twins | 63-66 | -45 | 1480 | 78.9 | 7% | 17% |
| Tigers | 61-67 | +79 | 1516 | 79.2 | 7% | 19% |
| Royals | 56-74 | -97 | 1473 | 70.6 | <1% | <1% |
AL West — Astros 53%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Astros | 65-64 | -42 | 1495 | 81.4 | 53% | 60% |
| Rangers | 64-65 | -45 | 1486 | 79.9 | 30% | 37% |
| Mariners | 61-68 | -45 | 1492 | 78.5 | 17% | 22% |
| Athletics | 49-80 | -189 | 1428 | 62.6 | <1% | <1% |
| Angels | 51-78 | -71 | 1451 | 65.1 | <1% | <1% |
NL East — Braves 80%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Braves | 75-55 | +106 | 1529 | 92.4 | 80% | 98% |
| Phillies | 71-58 | +16 | 1529 | 88.4 | 20% | 82% |
| Marlins | 65-64 | +15 | 1498 | 80.8 | <1% | 6% |
| Mets | 58-71 | -44 | 1492 | 73.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Nationals | 61-69 | +16 | 1478 | 76.3 | <1% | <1% |
NL Central — Brewers 93%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Brewers | 80-49 | +160 | 1565 | 98.9 | 93% | 100% |
| Cubs | 74-55 | +99 | 1543 | 91.7 | 7% | 97% |
| Reds | 61-68 | -98 | 1470 | 74.4 | <1% | <1% |
| Pirates | 63-67 | +30 | 1497 | 78.4 | <1% | 0% |
| Cardinals | 66-64 | +9 | 1499 | 82.1 | <1% | 9% |
NL West — Dodgers 99%
| Team | W-L | Run diff | Elo | Proj W | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|
| Dodgers | 78-51 | +146 | 1553 | 97.4 | 99% | 100% |
| Padres | 69-60 | +7 | 1524 | 87.0 | 1% | 65% |
| Diamondbacks | 68-61 | +13 | 1513 | 85.3 | <1% | 43% |
| Rockies | 50-78 | -130 | 1419 | 62.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Giants | 53-76 | -73 | 1470 | 68.2 | <1% | <1% |
Top seeds
- AL #1 seed favorite: Rays (54%)
- NL #1 seed favorite: Brewers (62%)
Rest-of-season Monte Carlo from current Elo ratings, live rating updates within each sim. 12-team playoff format; ties broken at random (head-to-head tiebreakers not modeled). Run differential is season-to-date. Projected W is the mean simulated final win total.
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb