How the 2026-08-22 predictions scored against actual results
Cumulative Δlog-loss vs always-pick-home: -0.0227 ± 0.0120 per game over 105 games (paired; negative = beating the baseline - currently ahead).
| Yesterday | Correct | Log-loss |
|---|---|---|
| model | 8/15 | 0.686 |
| always-pick-home | 9/15 | 0.682 |
Daily detail: 53% hit rate · Brier 0.247 · avg margin error 2.6 · avg total-runs error 3.6. Running: 61/105 (58.1%) · cumulative log-loss 0.666 · cumulative Brier 0.236
| Game | Pick | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ | Reds @ Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks (61%) | 4.9–4 | 5–11 (home first) |
| ❌ | Rays @ Orioles | Rays (52%) | 4.7–4.2 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Giants @ Red Sox | Red Sox (66%) | 5.1–3.7 | 3–2 (home first) |
| ❌ | Mets @ White Sox | White Sox (55%) | 4.5–4.3 | 5–10 (home first) |
| ✅ | Guardians @ Rockies | Guardians (57%) | 5.2–4.1 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Athletics @ Astros | Astros (64%) | 5.4–4.1 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Tigers @ Royals | Royals (51%) | 4.6–4.5 | 3–1 (home first) |
| ✅ | Pirates @ Dodgers | Dodgers (63%) | 5.1–4 | 4–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Nationals @ Marlins | Marlins (59%) | 4.8–4.1 | 4–2 (home first) |
| ✅ | Braves @ Brewers | Brewers (62%) | 4.8–3.7 | 4–1 (home first) |
| ❌ | Blue Jays @ Yankees | Yankees (55%) | 4.1–3.9 | 3–4 (home first) |
| ✅ | Cardinals @ Phillies | Phillies (53%) | 4.6–4.5 | 12–3 (home first) |
| ✅ | Twins @ Padres | Padres (59%) | 4.8–4.1 | 7–5 (home first) |
| ❌ | Cubs @ Mariners | Cubs (53%) | 4.9–4.3 | 5–4 (home first) |
| ❌ | Angels @ Rangers | Rangers (62%) | 4.6–3.6 | 0–3 (home first) |
The headline is the paired per-game log-loss difference against a fixed always-pick-home forecast (p=0.534) on the same games, ± one standard error; daily hit rate is noisy and demoted on purpose. Reference points: 0.693 is a coin flip; the model's walk-forward backtest runs 0.680 (research/SP-BACKTEST.md).
Betting-blind Elo model (K=3, +24 home, MOV-weighted, 60% season carryover) · Can Tre Beat Vegas · whosyurgoat.app/vegas/mlb